Looking for advice on who to play in your MMA lineups? In today’s edition of MMA Roosevelt’s Scouting Report, I break down Saturday’s slate for UFC on ESPN+ 10 live from Minneapolis, Minnesota!
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Welcome to my breakdown of UFC on ESPN 3! It’s been a while since I wrote a full fledge MMA article. I’ve been pretty busy on weekends. However, this article is back! If you remember from my last article I was competing in the Fantasy MMA Championship. I’m currently still alive! In 3rd place in the second round and this is the last week before round 3. To advance I need to maintain my position of 3rd place or move up so this is going to be a very important card to get correct. Hopefully, I can do well this week!
How I Rank Fighters
My rankings are based on the following criteria
- Odds to win the fight.
- DraftKings scoring average last 5 fights
- Draftkings career scoring average.
- Odds to win inside the distance.
- Fight Matrix weight class ranking
- Significant strikes landed per minute
- Average takedowns landed per fight
- Personal analysis of the fighters.
Under each category, fighters are listed in order of how much I like them.
Elite Plays – Elite fighters are fighters that I expect to win their fights and exceed their value on DraftKings. They have high scoring floors due to their ability to score points in multiple ways. They also have high scoring ceilings due to their ability to finish the fight, score a lot of points or both. Elite fighters are great plays in both cash contests as well as GPP contests. They are fighters that you can build your lineups around and have lots of exposure to.
- Jared Gordon – $9,200
There’s only one fighter that I’m willing to rank as an elite play this weekend and that’s Jared Gordon. He has very high odds to win and good odds to win inside the distance. He’s fighting an opponent with the weakest Fight Matrix ranking on the card. He also has both a very high significant strikes landed per minute as well as a high takedowns landed per fight ranking. He’s clearly on paper the best play on the card and I’ll have a ton of ownership of him.
Good Plays – Good fighters are fighters that should do well. However, they have one or more issues that prevent them from being an Elite play. They could be priced too high. They could be an underdog. They could have a more limited scoring path to meeting value. Good fighters are fighters that you try to get into your lineup after you have gotten as many Elite fighters in.
- Drew Dober – $9,500
- Francis Ngannou – $8,800
- Roosevelt Roberts – $8,900
- Eryk Anders – $9,400
- Demian Maia – $8,600
- Dalcha Lungiambula – $8,700
These fighters all have strong odds to win and in practically all cases, it would be a massive upset if they lost. It’s really going to come down to which one scores the best and whether you can fit as many of them into your lineups as you can or whether there’s an upset and you have their opponent in your lineup.
Fair Plays – These are fighters that you can use to round out your lineups. You need one or two more picks and you can’t fit anymore Elite or good fighters? This is where you go next. Here you have fighters that should win but might be priced too high. You also have mid-priced fighters who are in really close matchups with not as high of an upside. Finally, you have cheap fighters that are either live underdogs or are worth a punt to make room for more Elite or Good fighters. I’m going to divide fair into two categories. Fair plays I’m picking to win and fair plays I’m picking to lose. I still may have exposure to both side, but obviously the ones I’m picking to win I will have more exposure.
Fair Plays I’m Picking To Win
- Ricardo Ramos – $9,100
- Joseph Benavidez – $8,400
- Emily Whitmire – $8,500
- Maurice Green – $8,200
- Alonzo Menifield – $9,000
Fair Plays I’m Picking To Lose
- Junior Dos Santos – $7,400
- Junior Albini – $8,000
- Jussier Formiga – $7,800
- Vinc Pichel – $7,300
- Paul Craig – $7,200
- Anthony Rocco Martin – $7,600
- Amanda Ribas – $7,700
- Vinicius Moreira – $6,800
- Polo Reyes – $6,700
Poor Plays – These are fighters that are either very unlikely to win or they are very unlikely to meet value. They should not be played at all if you are playing less than 20 lineups. If you are playing more than 20 and you want to play any of them, they should be the lowest owned fighters in your player pool. Expect the unexpected in UFC and if a poor play wins and you have them, you got a good shot at taking down a GPP if the rest of your lineup is solid.
- Dequan Thompson – $7,500
- Dan Moret – $7,000
- Journey Newson – $7,100