Looking for advice on who to play in your MMA lineups? In today’s edition of MMA Roosevelt’s Scouting Report, I break down Saturday’s slate for UFC on ESPN+ 10 live from Rochester, New York
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Welcome to my breakdown of UFC on ESPN+ 10! Last week I finally had a strong week in MMA. It was great timing too because this was my first week competing in the DFS MMA Championship! I finished 1st in my pod last week and I also finished with almost a 5x return on investment. My main lineup finished strong with a 524. I stacked the main event and all my other fighters won. I also had a GPP lineup that finished 5th with a 618.5.
How I Rank Fighters
My rankings are based on the following criteria
- Odds to win the fight.
- DraftKings scoring average last 5 fights
- Draftkings career scoring average.
- Odds to win inside the distance.
- Fight Matrix weight class ranking
- Significant strikes landed per minute
- Average takedowns landed per fight
- Personal analysis of the fighters.
Under each category, fighters are listed in order of how much I like them.
Elite Plays – Elite fighters are fighters that I expect to win their fights and exceed their value on DraftKings. They have high scoring floors due to their ability to score points in multiple ways. They also have high scoring ceilings due to their ability to finish the fight, score a lot of points or both. Elite fighters are great plays in both cash contests as well as GPP contests. They are fighters that you can build your lineups around and have lots of exposure to.
- Vincente Luque – $9,400
- Charles Oliveira – $9,300
- Davi Ramos – $9,200
Luque, Oliveira and Ramos are all strong plays this week. All three have strong odds to win the fight and also have strong odds to win inside the distance. They also have big gaps with their opponents in terms of their level of competition. As a result, they are all good fighters to use as a foundation to build your lineups. They are all great plays for both cash/main lineup plays as well as for GPP lineups.
Good Plays – Good fighters are fighters that should do well. However, they have one or more issues that prevent them from being an Elite play. They could be priced too high. They could be an underdog. They could have a more limited scoring path to meeting value. Good fighters are fighters that you try to get into your lineup after you have gotten as many Elite fighters in.
- Apsen Ladd – $9,100
- Trevin Giles – $8,400
- Antonio Carlos Junior – $8,700
- Julio Arce – $9,600
- Kevin Lee – $8,000
- Grant Dawson – $7,900
- Patrick Cummins – $8,800
- Megan Anderson – $8,500
- Danny Roberts – $8,900
These fighters are all good plays in good positions to win and meet value. There are paths that they can lose though that have a higher likelihood than the elite fighters to potentially lose.
Fair Plays – These are fighters that you can use to round out your lineups. You need one or two more picks and you can’t fit anymore Elite or good fighters? This is where you go next. Here you have fighters that should win but might be priced too high. You also have mid-priced fighters who are in really close matchups with not as high of an upside. Finally, you have cheap fighters that are either live underdogs or are worth a punt to make room for more Elite or Good fighters. I’m going to divide fair into two categories. Fair plays I’m picking to win and fair plays I’m picking to lose. I still may have exposure to both side, but obviously the ones I’m picking to win I will have more exposure.
Fair Plays I’m Picking To Win
- Desmond Green – $9,500
Fair Plays I’m Picking To Lose
- Rafael Dos Anjos – $8,200
- Ian Heinisch – $7,500
- Zak Cummings – $7,800
- Ed Herman – $7,400
- Michael Trizano – $8,300
- Michel Pereira – $7,300
- Charles Jourdain – $6,700
Poor Plays – These are fighters that are either very unlikely to win or they are very unlikely to meet value. They should not be played at all if you are playing less than 20 lineups. If you are playing more than 20 and you want to play any of them, they should be the lowest owned fighters in your player pool. Expect the unexpected in UFC and if a poor play wins and you have them, you got a good shot at taking down a GPP if the rest of your lineup is solid.
- Sijara Eubanks – $7,100
- Nik Lentz – $6,900
- Julian Erosa – $6,600
- Austin Hubbard – $7,000
- Derrick Krantz – $6,500