MLB Roosevelt’s Lineup Card – Monday, May 6th, 2019

Looking for advice on who to play in your MLB lineups? In today’s edition of MLB Roosevelt’s Lineup Card, I break down Monday’s slate for MLB baseball!

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If you have questions, the best way to reach me is within our Facebook group The DFS Masters.

This group is the only place I answer individual questions about events. We have a discussion thread for each event and sport where you can post your questions and I will be more than happy to answer it. Feel free to tag me so I get an alert. Don’t inbox me on Facebook. I don’t check my messages frequent enough to get back to you in a timely manner.

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It’s been a while since I’ve had the opportunity to be able to put one of these out. Now that it’s slowing down a little bit at my job, I might be able to get at least one or two of these articles out per week for the rest of the baseball season. We shall see.

For those of you who are new to my baseball analysis, I am very big into Vegas odds, implied totals, pitcher vs hitter matchups and hitter vs pitcher matchups. My ideal pitcher to target is a pitcher pitching for a heavily favorite team against a hitting team with a low implied run total and poor hitting stats as a team. My favorite hitter to target is a hitter hitting for a heavily favorite team that has a high implied run total going against a pitcher with poor pitching stats. The goal each night is to build teams that get as close to that ideal as possible.

Here’s a breakdown of what I look at when building lineups and drafting players on the different sites:

  • Vegas implied offensive totals and team moneyline.
  • Pitching stats for pitchers I want to play and pitchers I want to pick batters against (i.e. SIERA, K% BB% GB% FB% HC%)
  • Team hitting wOBA versus the handedness of the pitcher they are facing.
  • Individual hitting stats versus the handedness of the pitcher they are facing (i.e. wOBA, ISO, K%, BB%, SB, LD%, GB%, FB%)
  • Stadium tendencies (Hitter Ball Park vs Pitcher Ball Park)
  • Weather
  • Position Scarcity (Snake Drafts Only)
  • Salary (Salary cap sites only)

Weather Spots To Watch

There are a few spots with possible rain but nothing that is impacting how I am drafting today.

DraftKings Plays Main Slate

Let’s start with pitchers. Cole Hamels is my number one option tonight. He put up 33.95 DK points against this team last time out and he’s $9,000 ($400 less than the last time he played Miami). Miami last season was the worst hitting team in the league against lefties with a .283 wOBA. Hamels should be very popular tonight, but it’s a big enough slate and there are enough good pitching options on DraftKings, I have no problem rolling him out regardless of ownership.

Jacob DeGrom is also an excellent option tonight as well. The Padres were the 3rd worst hitting team in the league against righties with a .292 wOBA. DeGrom has elite pitching stats all around and he’s cheaper than the most expensive option on the slate with a better matchup.

If you are looking to save money, I like Martin Perez tonight. He’s only $6,600 on DraftKings. He’s not a great pitcher against righties giving up an ugly .416 opposing wOBA against them in 2018. However, he’s shut them down in 2019 with only a .298 opposing wOBA. The Blue Jays are in the bottom half of the league in hitting against lefties with a .304 opposing wOBA. He put up a decent 16.1 score against them as well this year. I don’t mind taking a chance on Perez against them tonight.

Other pitchers worth looking at include Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, Blake Snell, Walker Buehler, Chris Paddack and Jhoulys Chacin.

For hitters, the Red Sox as a team have been in the bottom half of the league hitting against lefties. However, they have the highest implied run total on the slate. I would stick with high wOBA hitters like Betts, Martinez, Bogaerts and Pearce either as one-off plays or a mini stack.

Astros were in the middle of the pack against righties last year. They have the 2nd highest implied run total on the slate and Junis numbers aren’t great. Everyone is in play in this lineup. The lefties have a better matchup so I would prioritize the lefties first, followed by the highest wOBA hitting righties like Bregman and Altuve.

Cardinals have the 3rd highest implied run total on the slate. However, Velasquez has a .275 opposing wOBA against righties and Cardinals were in the bottom half of the league against righties. Carpenter is definitely in play. Not that crazy about the rest of the lineup, but high wOBA righties like Goldschmidt and Martinez are worth a look as well.

The Twins have the 4th highest implied run total on the slate. Stroman isn’t great but he has a very high GB%. I would stick to the better hitters in this lineup like Kepler, Polanco, Cruz, Rosario and Cron.

Toronto is 5th, but I like Perez, so I will be fading them. I also think the Cubs hitters are worth a look and Tampa Bay hitters are also worth a look.

Draft and Drafters Plays

If you are playing on Draft and Drafters, simply look at the pitchers and hitters I listed here and rank your drafts based on those. There are a lot of really good pitching options, so I wouldn’t even bother taking a pitcher until the end of the draft if you are playing in any contest from head to head to 5 player contests. Larger contests it might be worth getting one of the better pitchers early. If you’re playing an earlier slate Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeScifani are worth a look as pitchers. The Cleveland Indians hitters and the New York Yankees hitters are also worth a look as well. Christian Yelich is always in play. He has slate breaking upside regardless of matchup.

Good luck!

 

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