Looking for advice on who to play in your MMA lineups? In today’s edition of MMA Roosevelt’s Scouting Report, I break down Saturday’s slate for UFC On ESPN+ 9 live from Ottawa Ontario Canada.
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Welcome to my breakdown of UFC on ESPN + 9. On the last event I took another loss. MMA has not been good to me this year. Once again, my main lineup failed me. This was my fault though. There’s no reason I should have played Souza in my main lineup when I new Hermansson was one of the underdogs on the card in play. That’s a tactical mental error on my part so I absolutely have to hold that loss because I should know better. It’s not like I’ve been completely off on plays. I’m just making a lot of stupid mental mistakes when making lineups.
How I Rank Fighters
My rankings are based on the following criteria
- Odds to win the fight.
- DraftKings scoring average last 5 fights
- Draftkings career scoring average.
- Odds to win inside the distance.
- Fight Matrix weight class ranking
- Significant strikes landed per minute
- Average takedowns landed per fight
- Personal analysis of the fighters.
Under each category, fighters are listed in order of how much I like them.
Elite Plays – Elite fighters are fighters that I expect to win their fights and exceed their value on DraftKings. They have high scoring floors due to their ability to score points in multiple ways. They also have high scoring ceilings due to their ability to finish the fight, score a lot of points or both. Elite fighters are great plays in both cash contests as well as GPP contests. They are fighters that you can build your lineups around and have lots of exposure to.
- Macy Chiasson – $9,400
Macy Chiasson is the only play I like as an Elite play on this card. She’s an overwhelming favorite at -750 to win and is the only fighter on the card that has a negative money line to win inside the distance. In layman’s terms the books believe she is going to smash and I’m inclined to believe that as well. You’re out of your mind if you’re not playing her in cash and I’ll have massive GPP exposure as well.
Good Plays – Good fighters are fighters that should do well. However, they have one or more issues that prevent them from being an Elite play. They could be priced too high. They could be an underdog. They could have a more limited scoring path to meeting value. Good fighters are fighters that you try to get into your lineup after you have gotten as many Elite fighters in.
- Walt Harris – $8,900
- Juan Adams – $8,300
- Al Inquinta – $8,400
- Andrew Sanchez – $8,700
- Merab Dvalishvili – $8,600
- Matt Sayles – $9,100
- Donald Cerrone – $7,800
These 7 plays here are who I will be building my lineups around. I like Harris and Adams to win by finish this providing good upside at their prices. I like Inquinta over Cerrone but the winner of that fight should score well and the loser could score well even in a lost. Therefore I will have good exposure to both of them. Sanchez is a solid cash play and has some wrestling upside that puts him in play even in GPPs. The same is true for Dvalishvili. Sayles needs a finish to pay off that price but I believe he should be able to get it done.
Fair Plays – These are fighters that you can use to round out your lineups. You need one or two more picks and you can’t fit anymore Elite or good fighters? This is where you go next. Here you have fighters that should win but might be priced too high. You also have mid-priced fighters who are in really close matchups with not as high of an upside. Finally, you have cheap fighters that are either live underdogs or are worth a punt to make room for more Elite or Good fighters. I’m going to divide fair into two categories. Fair plays I’m picking to win and fair plays I’m picking to lose. I still may have exposure to both side, but obviously the ones I’m picking to win I will have more exposure.
Fair Plays I’m Picking To Win
- Nordine Taleb – $9,300
- Mitch Gagnon – $8,500
- Derek Brunson – $8,200
- Cub Swanson – $7,400
Fair Plays I’m Picking To Lose
- Shane Burgos – $8,800
- Elias Theodorou – $8,000
- Brad Katona – $7,600
- Arjan Bhullar – $7,900
- Serghei Spivac – $7,300
- Vince Morales – $7,200
- Cole Smith – $7,700
- Marc-Andre Barriault – $7,500
Poor Plays – These are fighters that are either very unlikely to win or they are very unlikely to meet value. They should not be played at all if you are playing less than 20 lineups. If you are playing more than 20 and you want to play any of them, they should be the lowest owned fighters in your player pool. Expect the unexpected in UFC and if a poor play wins and you have them, you got a good shot at taking down a GPP if the rest of your lineup is solid.
- Aiemann Zahabi – $9,000
- Kyle Nelson – $7,100
- Kyle Prepolec – $6.900
- Sarah Moras – $6,800