Looking for advice on who to play in your MMA lineups? In today’s edition of MMA Roosevelt’s Scouting Report, I break down Saturday’s slate for UFC 236 from St Petersburg, Russia
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Welcome to my breakdown of UFC on ESPN + 7. On the last event I took another loss. MMA has not been good to me this year. Once again, my main lineup failed me. I made a tactical error on my part not stacking the Main Event and that fight was exactly the type of fight I like to stack. That decision cost me as I would have had 124 from Poitier and 90.5 from Holloway. My main lineup would have definitely cashed with those two. I had some GPP lineups do well but not well enough for me to profit.
How I Rank Fighters
My rankings are based on the following criteria
- Odds to win the fight.
- DraftKings scoring average last 5 fights
- Draftkings career scoring average.
- Odds to win inside the distance.
- Fight Matrix weight class ranking
- Significant strikes landed per minute
- Average takedowns landed per fight
- Personal analysis of the fighters.
Under each category, fighters are listed in order of how much I like them.
Elite Plays – Elite fighters are fighters that I expect to win their fights and exceed their value on DraftKings. They have high scoring floors due to their ability to score points in multiple ways. They also have high scoring ceilings due to their ability to finish the fight, score a lot of points or both. Elite fighters are great plays in both cash contests as well as GPP contests. They are fighters that you can build your lineups around and have lots of exposure to.
- Islam Makhachev – $9,400
Islam is the only Fighter I feel comfortable listing as an Elite play on this card. I really see no reason why he doesn’t make shot work of his opponent giving you an easy 100+ points to start your lineup off with. I will have massive exposure to him on this card and if he loses so be it. There’s no reason not to play him especially in a card with this much uncertainty.
Good Plays – Good fighters are fighters that should do well. However, they have one or more issues that prevent them from being an Elite play. They could be priced too high. They could be an underdog. They could have a more limited scoring path to meeting value. Good fighters are fighters that you try to get into your lineup after you have gotten as many Elite fighters in.
- Alistair Overeem – $8,900
- Marcin Tybura – $8,400
- Sergei Pavlovich – $9,200
- Krzysztof Jotko – $8,600
- Movsar Evloev – $9,100
- Ivan Shtyrkov – $8,700
- Alexander Yakovlev – $8,300
I believe our weekend will come down to which of these plays we get right. Overeem, Pavlovich, Evloev and Shtyrkov have the best chance to finish. Tybura is priced to exceed value. Jotko and Yakovlev give us odds value.
Fair Plays – These are fighters that you can use to round out your lineups. You need one or two more picks and you can’t fit anymore Elite or good fighters? This is where you go next. Here you have fighters that should win but might be priced too high. You also have mid-priced fighters who are in really close matchups with not as high of an upside. Finally, you have cheap fighters that are either live underdogs or are worth a punt to make room for more Elite or Good fighters. I’m going to divide fair into two categories. Fair plays I’m picking to win and fair plays I’m picking to lose. I still may have exposure to both side, but obviously the ones I’m picking to win I will have more exposure.
Fair Plays I’m Picking To Win
- Antonina Shevchenko – $9,300
- Rafael Fiziev – $7,700
- Gadzhimurad Antigulov – $7,400
Fair Plays I’m Picking To Lose
- Michal Oleksiejczuk – $8,800
- Magomed Mustafaev – $8,500
- Shamil Abdurakhimov – $7,800
- Alen Amedovski – $7,600
- Devin Clark – $7,500
- Aleksei Oleinik – $7,300
- Marcelo Golm – $7,000
- Roxanne Modafferi – $6,900
Poor Plays – These are fighters that are either very unlikely to win or they are very unlikely to meet value. They should not be played at all if you are playing less than 20 lineups. If you are playing more than 20 and you want to play any of them, they should be the lowest owned fighters in your player pool. Expect the unexpected in UFC and if a poor play wins and you have them, you got a good shot at taking down a GPP if the rest of your lineup is solid.
- Keita Nakamura – $8,200
- Sultan Aliev – $8,000
- Alex Da Silva – $7,900
- Seungwoo Choi – $7,100
- Arman Tsarukyan – $6,800