Fantasy MMA UFC Roosevelt’s Scouting Report – Saturday April 13th, 2019

Looking for advice on who to play in your MMA lineups? In today’s edition of MMA Roosevelt’s Scouting Report, I break down Saturday’s slate for UFC 236 from Atlanta, Georgia.

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Welcome to my breakdown of UFC 236! On the last event I tweaked out a very small profit. Once again, my main lineup failed me. I didn’t have any big scorers for winners and I had two losers in Borg and Johnson. However, I had a number of GPP lineups that were able to make up the difference to get me over the profit line. Hopefully, UFC 236 will be kinder to me.

How I Rank Fighters

My rankings are based on the following criteria

  • Odds to win the fight.
  • DraftKings scoring average last 5 fights
  • Draftkings career scoring average.
  • Odds to win inside the distance.
  • Fight Matrix weight class ranking
  • Significant strikes landed per minute
  • Average takedowns landed per fight
  • Personal analysis of the fighters.

Under each category, fighters are listed in order of how much I like them.

Elite Plays – Elite fighters are fighters that I expect to win their fights and exceed their value on DraftKings. They have high scoring floors due to their ability to score points in multiple ways. They also have high scoring ceilings due to their ability to finish the fight, score a lot of points or both. Elite fighters are great plays in both cash contests as well as GPP contests. They are fighters that you can build your lineups around and have lots of exposure to.

  1. Max Holloway – $9,100
  2. Montel Jackson – $9,400

If you want elite plays this week you will have to pay up for it. Holloway on paper might be one of the best FANTASY UFC fighters of all time. He’s averaging over 92 points per fight and over the last five fights he’s averaging over 128 points per fight. He has the floor you need for cash games (he hasn’t scored lower than 64 in his last 10 fights) and he has GPP winning upside every time he fights. Jackson is the biggest favorite on the card, top 3 in inside the distance odds and has the 2nd highest average takedowns per fight on the entire card. Both of these fighters make great building blocks for your lineups.

Good Plays – Good fighters are fighters that should do well. However, they have one or more issues that prevent them from being an Elite play. They could be priced too high. They could be an underdog. They could have a more limited scoring path to meeting value. Good fighters are fighters that you try to get into your lineup after you have gotten as many Elite fighters in.

  1. Israel Adesanya – $9,200
  2. Jalin Turner – $8,400
  3. Poliana Botelho – $8,900
  4. Belal Muhammad – $8,500
  5. Brandon Davis – $8,700
  6. Max Griffin – $8,000

Israel Adesanya has looked dominant so far in the UFC and I expect it to continue here. However, a low scoring decision possibility limits his upside and there’s even a path to him losing this fight as well. I love this spot for Jalin Turner and I think he’s got a great chance at exceeding value at his price. Poliana Botelho is a good play as well. However, like with Adesanya I have concerns of her meeting value if this fight goes to a decision. Belal Muhammad is a much better floor play than he is an upside play. Brandon Davis should smash in this spot not so much because of him but because of how terrible his opponent is. Griffin like Muhammad is a much better floor play than he is an upside play but at $500 less he could open the door for other plays with more upside.

Fair Plays – These are fighters that you can use to round out your lineups. You need one or two more picks and you can’t fit anymore Elite or good fighters? This is where you go next. Here you have fighters that should win but might be priced too high. You also have mid-priced fighters who are in really close matchups with not as high of an upside. Finally, you have cheap fighters that are either live underdogs or are worth a punt to make room for more Elite or Good fighters. I’m going to divide fair into two categories. Fair plays I’m picking to win and fair plays I’m picking to lose. I still may have exposure to both side, but obviously the ones I’m picking to win I will have more exposure.

Fair Plays I’m Picking To Win

  1. Nikita Krylov – $8,200
  2. Dwight Grant – $7,900
  3. Boston Salmon – $8,600
  4. Wilson Reis – $7,400
  5. Khail Roundtree – $7,200

Fair Plays I’m Picking To Lose

  1. Eryk Anders – $9,000
  2. Alexandre Pantoja – $8,800
  3. Ovince Saint Preux – $8,000
  4. Alan Jouban – $8,300
  5. Dustin Poirier – $7,100
  6. Kelvin Gastelum – $7,000
  7. Matt Frevola – $7,800
  8. Curtis Millender – $7,700

Poor Plays – These are fighters that are either very unlikely to win or they are very unlikely to meet value. They should not be played at all if you are playing less than 20 lineups. If you are playing more than 20 and you want to play any of them, they should be the lowest owned fighters in your player pool. Expect the unexpected in UFC and if a poor play wins and you have them, you got a good shot at taking down a GPP if the rest of your lineup is solid.

  1. Zelim Imadaev – $8,200
  2. Lauren Mueller – $7,300
  3. Andre Soukhamthath – $6,800
  4. Randy Costa – $7,500
  5. Khalid Taha – $7,600

Good luck!

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