Looking for advice on who to play in your MMA lineups? In today’s edition of MMA Roosevelt’s Scouting Report, I break down Saturday’s slate for UFC Fight Night ESPN live from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
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Welcome to my breakdown of UFC on ESPN 2. This is the 2nd card that’s live on ESPN as oppose to ESPN+ so if you have cable you will be able to watch this one live. Last week was another rough week. My GPP lineups did decent but not good enough to take down anything. My main lineup just barely missed cashing. The Figueiredo loss killed me. This week’s card is probably the most difficult card to predict this year. If money is tight, I would suggest scaling back this week.
How I Rank Fighters
My rankings are based on the following criteria
- Odds to win the fight.
- DraftKings scoring average last 5 fights
- Draftkings career scoring average.
- Odds to win inside the distance.
- Fight Matrix weight class ranking
- Significant strikes landed per minute
- Average takedowns landed per fight
- Personal analysis of the fighters.
Under each category, fighters are listed in order of how much I like them.
Elite Plays – Elite fighters are fighters that I expect to win their fights and exceed their value on DraftKings. They have high scoring floors due to their ability to score points in multiple ways. They also have high scoring ceilings due to their ability to finish the fight, score a lot of points or both. Elite fighters are great plays in both cash contests as well as GPP contests. They are fighters that you can build your lineups around and have lots of exposure to.
- Alex Perez – $9,200
- Ray Borg – $9,400
Perez and Borg are the only two fighters that I feel completely confident in them winning this week. They are also two of the most expensive fighters on the card. I think Perez is too big and too strong for De La Rosa to handle. He’s tied for 2nd as the biggest odds to win and ranked 4th in inside the distance odds. I don’t think Kennedy has the grappling game good enough to be able to compete against Borg. I’ll have heavy exposure to both of these fighters.
Good Plays – Good fighters are fighters that should do well. However, they have one or more issues that prevent them from being an Elite play. They could be priced too high. They could be an underdog. They could have a more limited scoring path to meeting value. Good fighters are fighters that you try to get into your lineup after you have gotten as many Elite fighters in.
- Kevin Holland – $8,900
- Marina Rodriguez – $9,100
- Desmond Green – $9,300
These are the only three fighters I feel comfortable enough to rank as good plays. Holland is extremely reckless and has a good opponent. However, he has more paths to victory here. Rodriguez struggles with wrestling. However, I’m not banking on Aguliar to be the one to be able to take advantage of that. Green has the biggest odds to win. Upside is a HUGE concern with him though in this one because of low inside the distance odds, low strike rate and low takedowns.
Fair Plays – These are fighters that you can use to round out your lineups. You need one or two more picks and you can’t fit anymore Elite or good fighters? This is where you go next. Here you have fighters that should win but might be priced too high. You also have mid-priced fighters who are in really close matchups with not as high of an upside. Finally, you have cheap fighters that are either live underdogs or are worth a punt to make room for more Elite or Good fighters.
- Kennedy Nzechukwu – $9,000
- Jack Hermansson – $8,300
- Michael Johnson – $8,400
- Sodiq Yusuff – $8,700
- Kevin Aguilar – $8,000
- Justin Gaethje – $7,700
- Michelle Waterson – $7,600
- Maryna Moroz – $7,400
- Karolina Kowalkiewicz – $8,600
- Edson Barboza – $8,500
- Sabino Mazo – $8,800
- Enrique Barzola – $8,200
- David Branch – $7,900
- Josh Emmett – $7,800
- Sheymon Moraes – $7,500
- Gerald Meerschaert – $7,300
- Paul Craig – $7,200
Each fighter is ranked in order of how much I like them. Unless you’re mass entering you really don’t need to play all of these fighters. Pick a few you like and build around them mixing and matching with the plays you like more strongly.
Poor Plays – These are fighters that are either very unlikely to win or they are very unlikely to meet value. They should not be played at all if you are playing less than 20 lineups. If you are playing more than 20 and you want to play any of them, they should be the lowest owned fighters in your player pool.
- Casey Kenney – $6,800
- Mark De La Rosa – 7,000
- Jessica Aguliar – $7,100
- Ross Pearson – $6,900