Looking for advice on who to play in your MMA lineups? In today’s edition of MMA Roosevelt’s Scouting Report, I break down Saturday’s slate for UFC Fight Night ESPN live from Nashville, Tennessee.
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Welcome to my breakdown of UFC on ESPN+ 6! Last week was another tough week in MMA. My main lineup scored 406 and just missed out on cashing. My other lineups didn’t do much so it was a bust. New card this week just have to brush it off and try again in Nashville.
How I Rank Fighters
My rankings are based on the following criteria
- Odds to win the fight.
- DraftKings scoring average last 5 fights
- Draftkings career scoring average.
- Odds to win inside the distance.
- Fight Matrix weight class ranking
- Significant strikes landed per minute
- Average takedowns landed per fight
- Personal analysis of the fighters.
Under each category, fighters are listed in order of how much I like them.
Elite Plays – Elite fighters are fighters that I expect to win their fights and exceed their value on DraftKings. They have high scoring floors due to their ability to score points in multiple ways. They also have high scoring ceilings due to their ability to finish the fight, score a lot of points or both. Elite fighters are great plays in both cash contests as well as GPP contests. They are fighters that you can build your lineups around and have lots of exposure to.
- Curtis Blaydes – $9,000
- Chris Gutierrez – $8,300
This weekend I’m building around Blaydes and Figueiredo. While you can’t count Willis out completely, I think this is a fantastic matchup for Blaydes and that he has some serious upside in this spot. With Gutierrez we get some serious odds value picking up a over -200 odds favorite at pickem pricing against what I believe to be a subpar opponent who looked good against inferior competition. Clearly, the betting community agrees with me because they massively bid Gutierrez up. Bovada opened this fight at a pickem. Don’t be cute here. Play Gutierrez massively and differentiate your lineup elsewhere.
Good Plays – Good fighters are fighters that should do well. However, they have one or more issues that prevent them from being an Elite play. They could be priced too high. They could be an underdog. They could have a more limited scoring path to meeting value. Good fighters are fighters that you try to get into your lineup after you have gotten as many Elite fighters in.
- Maycee Barber – $8,900
- Deiveson Figueiredo – $8,500
- Bobby Moffett – $8,800
- Stephen Thompson – $9,300
- Marlon Vera – $8,400
I think Maycee Barber is the real deal here. This will be a good test for her but I see her passing it with flying colors. If Formiga wasn’t so dangerous, Figueiredo would be an elite play in this spot. I think he performs well and exceeds value here. I would like Moffett a lot better if he was Figueiredo’s price. However, I believe he should prevail in this one and have the opportunity to score well. I think Thompson is a good, safe play but upside is definitely a concern here. He does not have the strike rate or the takedown rate to score well in a decision so he really needs to get a finish to pay off that price tag. This isn’t a safe fight for Vera, but it’s a winnable one and I think he may go overlooked.
Fair Plays – These are fighters that you can use to round out your lineups. You need one or two more picks and you can’t fit anymore Elite or good fighters? This is where you go next. Here you have fighters that should win but might be priced too high. You also have mid-priced fighters who are in really close matchups with not as high of an upside. Finally, you have cheap fighters that are either live underdogs or are worth a punt to make room for more Elite or Good fighters.
- John Makdessi – $9,100
- Luis Pena – $9,200
- Alexis Davis – $8,600
- Jussier Formiga – $7,700
- Justin Willis – $7,200
- Angela Hill – $8,200
- Jordan Espinosa – $7,500
- Bryce Mitchell – $7,400
- Eric Shelton – $8,700
- Steven Peterson – $7,000
- Jennifer Maia – $7,600
- Frankie Saenz – $7,800
Each fighter is ranked in order of how much I like them. Unless you’re mass entering you really don’t need to play all of these fighters. Pick a few you like and build around them mixing and matching with the plays you like more strongly.
Poor Plays – These are fighters that are either very unlikely to win or they are very unlikely to meet value. They should not be played at all if you are playing less than 20 lineups. If you are playing more than 20 and you want to play any of them, they should be the lowest owned fighters in your player pool.
- Anthony Pettis – $6,900
- Jesus Pinedo – $7,100
- Randa Markos – $8,000
- JJ Aldrich – $7,300
- Ryan MacDonald – $7,900