Looking for advice on who to play in your MMA lineups? In today’s edition of MMA Roosevelt’s Scouting Report, I break down Saturday’s slate for UFC Fight Night ESPN live from London, England.
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Welcome to my breakdown of UFC on ESPN+ 5! Last week I didn’t play because I waited too long and the contests filled up. With this card being in London and having a 11am eastern start time I entered my contests several days ago just to make sure I can get in. Hopefully we will be able to do well this week.
How I Rank Fighters
My rankings are based on the following criteria
- Odds to win the fight.
- DraftKings scoring average last 5 fights
- Draftkings career scoring average.
- Odds to win inside the distance.
- Fight Matrix weight class ranking
- Significant strikes landed per minute
- Average takedowns landed per fight
- Personal analysis of the fighters.
Under each category, fighters are listed in order of how much I like them.
Elite Plays – Elite fighters are fighters that I expect to win their fights and exceed their value on DraftKings. They have high scoring floors due to their ability to score points in multiple ways. They also have high scoring ceilings due to their ability to finish the fight, score a lot of points or both. Elite fighters are great plays in both cash contests as well as GPP contests. They are fighters that you can build your lineups around and have lots of exposure to.
- Dominick Reyes – $9,300
- Claudio Silva – $8,600
I like Reyes and Silva as plays to build around on this card. Reyes has the 2nd highest odds to win and the highest inside the distance odds on the card. Silva has a really solid path to victory (grab, lock him up and terrorize on the ground). They will both be in my Core lineup and I’ll have very few lineups without at least one of them this weekend.
Good Plays – Good fighters are fighters that should do well. However, they have one or more issues that prevent them from being an Elite play. They could be priced too high. They could be an underdog. They could have a more limited scoring path to meeting value. Good fighters are fighters that you try to get into your lineup after you have gotten as many Elite fighters in.
- Nathaniel Wood – $9,400
- Darren Till – $9,200
- Nicolae Negumereanu – $9,000
- Tom Breese – $8,400
- Molly McCann – $8,500
- Jack Marshman – $8,800
- Mike Grundy – $7,300
- Jordan Rinaldi – $7,500
Wood, Till and Negumereanu are strong plays but not strong enough to be considered Elite in my view. Wood likely needs a finish to pay off value. Till just has a super tough opponent even though I’m picking him to win. Negumereanu is making his debut and I never rank debuting fighters as elite except for extremely rare circumstances. Breese should win here but he needs a finish due to his low strikes and takedowns. McCann is very one dimensional but her opponent has been out more than a year and is likely going to fight a style of fight that suits McCann. Grundy and Rinaldi are the most likely candidates to get an upset and in the case of Grundy I’m actually picking him to win.
Fair Plays – These are fighters that you can use to round out your lineups. You need one or two more picks and you can’t fit anymore Elite or good fighters? This is where you go next. Here you have fighters that should win but might be priced too high. You also have mid-priced fighters who are in really close matchups with not as high of an upside. Finally, you have cheap fighters that are either live underdogs or are worth a punt to make room for more Elite or Good fighters.
- Gunnar Nelson – $7,900
- Danny Henry – $8,000
- Dan Ige – $8,200
- Joe Duffy – $9,100
- Nad Narimani – $8,900
- Leon Edwards – $8,300
- Ian Heinisch – $7,800
- Arnold Allen – $8,700
- Volkan Oezdemir – $6,900
- Jorge Masvidal – $7,000
- John Phillips – $7,400
Each fighter is ranked in order of how much I like them. Unless you’re mass entering you really don’t need to play all of these fighters. Pick a few you like and build around them mixing and matching with the plays you like more strongly.
Poor Plays – These are fighters that are either very unlikely to win or they are very unlikely to meet value. They should not be played at all if you are playing less than 20 lineups. If you are playing more than 20 and you want to play any of them, they should be the lowest owned fighters in your player pool.
- Saparbeg Safarov – $7,200
- Danny Roberts – $7,600
- Jose Quinonez – $6,800
- Mark Diakiese – $7,100
- Priscilla Cachoeira – $7,700