Looking for advice on who to play in your MMA lineups? In today’s edition of MMA Roosevelt’s Scouting Report, I break down Saturday’s slate for UFC Fight Night ESPN live from Las Vegas, Nevada.
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Welcome to my breakdown of UFC 235 live from Las Vegas, Nevada! This is a pretty solid card with some good fights. Last week, I played really light because I really wasn’t a fan of that card. I ended up with a small loss. This week, I will be back to my regular exposure. Let’s see if we can put up a solid performance this week.
How I Rank Fighters
My rankings are based on the following criteria
- Odds to win the fight.
- DraftKings scoring average last 5 fights
- Draftkings career scoring average.
- Odds to win inside the distance.
- Fight Matrix weight class ranking
- Significant strikes landed per minute
- Average takedowns landed per fight
- Personal analysis of the fighters.
Under each category, fighters are listed in order of how much I like them.
Elite Plays – Elite fighters are fighters that I expect to win their fights and exceed their value on DraftKings. They have high scoring floors due to their ability to score points in multiple ways. They also have high scoring ceilings due to their ability to finish the fight, score a lot of points or both. Elite fighters are great plays in both cash contests as well as GPP contests. They are fighters that you can build your lineups around and have lots of exposure to.
- Jon Jones – $9,600
- Cody Garbrandt – $8,500
Jon Jones is an automatic lock in cash games. If you’re fading him in that format, you’re just being too cute and you’re setting yourself up to throw your money away. Now, with that said, while I will have some GPP expsoure, I’m not crazy about him in that format even though he’s an elite play. He consistently puts up between 90 and 115 points and while that’s great, there is certainly a path to him not being on the winning lineup in GPP. I’ll have more GPP lineups with no Jones than I will with Jones. Cody Garbrandt, I will have a TON of ownership in all formats. If you take out his fights with Dillashaw, he just dominates and we can get that type of upside at $1,100 less than we have to pay for Jones. I’ll have to have some Munhoz just because of how much Garbrandt I’ll have, but I’m very comfortable with having my night dependent on how Cody Garbrandt does tonight.
Good Plays – Good fighters are fighters that should do well. However, they have one or more issues that prevent them from being an Elite play. They could be priced too high. They could be an underdog. They could have a more limited scoring path to meeting value. Good fighters are fighters that you try to get into your lineup after you have gotten as many Elite fighters in.
- Marcy Chiasson – $9,400
- Zabit Magomedsharipov – $8,900
- Polyana Viana – $9,200
- Mickey Gall – $9,100
- Cody Stamann – $8,600
- Robbie Lawler – $7,200
I like all of these plays and I think they make great building blocks for your lineups. Robbie Lawler, I am predicting will pull out the upset and defeat Ben Askren.
Fair Plays – These are fighters that you can use to round out your lineups. You need one or two more picks and you can’t fit anymore Elite or good fighters? This is where you go next. Here you have fighters that should win but might be priced too high. You also have mid-priced fighters who are in really close matchups with not as high of an upside. Finally, you have cheap fighters that are either live underdogs or are worth a punt to make room for more Elite or Good fighters.
- Weili Zhang – $8,300
- Misha Cirkunov – $7,800
- Charles Byrd – $8,000
- Ben Askren – $9,000
- Johnny Walker – $8,400
- Edmen Shahbazyan – $8,200
- Tecia Torres – $7,900
- Pedro Munhoz – $7,700
- Kamaru Usman – $7,500
- Jeremy Stephens – $7,300
- Anthony Smith – $6,600
Zhang, Cirkunov and Byrd are fighters that I believe will win. The rest of the fighters are fighters that I believe will lose but either have a chance of winning or are cheap and can potentially meet value at their price points.
Poor Plays – These are fighters that are either very unlikely to win or they are very unlikely to meet value. They should not be played at all if you are playing less than 20 lineups. If you are playing more than 20 and you want to play any of them, they should be the lowest owned fighters in your player pool.
- Tyron Woodley – $8,700
- Alejandro Perez – $7,600
- Diego Sanchez – $7,100
- Hannah Cifers – $7,000
- Gina Mazana – $6,800
I actually have Woodley winning. However, he’s such a terrible play from a fantasy standpoint. His only path to scoring well is a finish because he doesn’t strike a lot and doesn’t get a lot of takedowns. I can’t pay $8,700 for a guy like that. The rest of the fighters, I just don’t see doing well and scoring well.