Looking for advice on who to play in your MMA lineups? In today’s edition of MMA Roosevelt’s Scouting Report, I break down Saturday’s slate for UFC Fight Night ESPN live from Prague, Czech Republic.
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Welcome to my breakdown of UFC on ESPN+ 3 live from Prague in the Czech Republic! I’m going to be frank. This is not an exciting card by any stretch of the imagination. This is also not a card that’s easy to predict. Combine that with a 11:00am start time and you have the makings of a very challenging slate for DFS purposes. As such, I will be dramatically reducing my exposure on this card.
If you are going to play this card, I’m going to list the fighters by category. Won’t be doing any analysis, just categories for this card.
How I Rank Fighters
My rankings are based on the following criteria
- Odds to win the fight.
- DraftKings scoring average last 5 fights
- Draftkings career scoring average.
- Odds to win inside the distance.
- Fight Matrix weight class ranking
- Significant strikes landed per minute
- Average takedowns landed per fight
- Personal analysis of the fighters.
Under each category, fighters are listed in order of how much I like them.
Elite Plays – Elite fighters are fighters that I expect to win their fights and exceed their value on DraftKings. They have high scoring floors due to their ability to score points in multiple ways. They also have high scoring ceilings due to their ability to finish the fight, score a lot of points or both. Elite fighters are great plays in both cash contests as well as GPP contests. They are fighters that you can build your lineups around and have lots of exposure to.
- Michel Prazeres – $9,400
- Magomed Ankalaev – $9,100
Good Plays – Good fighters are fighters that should do well. However, they have one or more issues that prevent them from being an Elite play. They could be priced too high. They could be an underdog. They could have a more limited scoring path to meeting value. Good fighters are fighters that you try to get into your lineup after you have gotten as many Elite fighters in.
- Petr Yan – $9,300
- Damir Ismagulov – $9,200
- Chris Fishgold – $9,000
- Michal Oleksiejczuk – $8,900
- Gillian Robertson – $8,600
- Liz Carmouche – $8,300
- Carlo Pedersoli – $8,200
Fair Plays – These are fighters that you can use to round out your lineups. You need one or two more picks and you can’t fit anymore Elite or good fighters? This is where you go next. Here you have fighters that should win but might be priced too high. You also have mid-priced fighters who are in really close matchups with not as high of an upside. Finally, you have cheap fighters that are either live underdogs or are worth a punt to make room for more Elite or Good fighters.
- Polo Reyes – $8,800
- Rustam Khabilov – $8,700
- Thiago Santos – $8,500
- Marcos Rogerio de Lima – $8,400
- Dwight Grant – $8,000
- Lucie Pudilova – $7,900
- Stefan Struve – $7,800
- Jan Blachowicz – $7,700
- Diego Ferreira – $7,500
- Damir Hadzovic – $7,400
Poor Plays – These are fighters that are either very unlikely to win or they are very unlikely to meet value. They should not be played at all if you are playing less than 20 lineups. If you are playing more than 20 and you want to play any of them, they should be the lowest owned fighters in your player pool.
- Veronica Macedo – 7,600
- Gian Villante – $7,300
- Daniel Teymur – $7,200
- Klidson Abreu – $7,100
- Joel Alverez – 7,000
- John Dodson – $6,900
- Ismail Naurdiev – $6,800