Looking for advice on who to play in your MMA lineups? In today’s edition of MMA Roosevelt’s Scouting Report, I break down Saturday’s slate for UFC Fight Night live from Brazil!
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Welcome to my breakdown of UFC ESPN+ 002 card live from Brazil! Last card, I went 9-3 on my predictions. However, I took a slight loss on my lineups. My primary lineup miss cashing by 3 points thanks to TJ Dillashaw getting finished so quickly, he was only able to score 0.5 points and I stacked the Main Event. I also played Lipski against my better judgment in my main lineup and had I made a better play there, I could have overcome the quick finish by Dillashaw. Anyway, on to the next card!
How I Rank Fighters
My rankings are based on the following criteria
- Odds to win the fight.
- DraftKings scoring average last 5 fights
- Draftkings career scoring average.
- Odds to win inside the distance.
- Fight Matrix weight class ranking
- Significant strikes landed per minute
- Average takedowns landed per fight
- Personal analysis of the fighters.
Under each category, fighters are listed in order of how much I like them.
Elite Plays – Elite fighters are fighters that I expect to win their fights and exceed their value on DraftKings. They have high scoring floors due to their ability to score points in multiple ways. They also have high scoring ceilings due to their ability to finish the fight, score a lot of points or both. Elite fighters are great plays in both cash contests as well as GPP contests. They are fighters that you can build your lineups around and have lots of exposure to.
- Livinha Souza – $9,100
- Johnny Walker – $9,200
I don’t care that Souza missed weight by seven pounds. She is to me clearly the better fighter and she has multiple ways of scoring high. I’m very comfortable with building around her on this card. Walker has more power, is more athletic, is better on the feet and has fought much better competition. I love him in all formats this weekend.
Good Plays – Good fighters are fighters that should do well. However, they have one or more issues that prevent them from being an Elite play. They could be priced too high. They could be an underdog. They could have a more limited scoring path to meeting value. Good fighters are fighters that you try to get into your lineup after you have gotten as many Elite fighters in.
- Magomed Bibulatov – $9,400
- Charles Oliveira – $8,500
- Ricardo Ramos – $8,000
- Anthony Hernandez – $8,900
- Mara Romero Borella – $7,600
- Raphael Assuncao – $7,400
Bibulatov should win but I have some concerns about him meeting value here keeping him from the elite conversation. Oliveira is at a disadvantage on the feet here, but I think he should pull it out. Ramos is at a disadvantage on the ground, but I think he should pull it out. Hernandez doesn’t have any UFC experience and there’s a small risk he loses by submission but I think he should be able to handle Perez. Borella looks to me like the better fighter even though her opponent is undefeated and we have to pick underdogs at some point. She’s my favorite underdog on this card and I like her to win. Assuncao is in play in all formats because he gets up to 5 rounds and is another underdog I like winning here.
Fair Plays – These are fighters that you can use to round out your lineups. You need one or two more picks and you can’t fit anymore Elite or good fighters? This is where you go next. Here you have fighters that should win but might be priced too high. You also have mid-priced fighters who are in really close matchups with not as high of an upside. Finally, you have cheap fighters that are either live underdogs or are worth a punt to make room for more Elite or Good fighters.
- Damian Maia – $8,700
- Marlon Moraes – $8,800
- Renato Moicano – $8,300
- Jairzinho Rozenstruik – $8,100
- Jose Aldo – $7,900
- Felipe Colares – $7,800
- Junior Albini – $8,100
- Max Griffin – $9,000
- David Teymur – $7,700
- Lyman Good – $7,500
- Said Nurmagomedov – $8,200
- Rogerio Bontorin – $6,800
- Thiago Alves – $7,200
- Markus Perez – $7,300
I’m not going to list every single fighter here. However, I will highlight a couple. Maia should win here but Good is a live dog in my view so I don’t feel confident in him as anything other than a fill in. If you like him though definitely feel free to play him. Moraes is the favorite in the main event and is certainly in play in all formats. However, I think he loses here and I’m not comfortable paying $8,800 in too many lineups. Main Event is definitely stackable in cash though. I like Aldo to win but he usually doesn’t score well unless he gets the finish so I’ll only be using him as a fill in.
Poor Plays – These are fighters that are either very unlikely to win or they are very unlikely to meet value. They should not be played at all if you are playing less than 20 lineups. If you are playing more than 20 and you want to play any of them, they should be the lowest owned fighters in your player pool.
- Taila Santos – $8,600
- Geraldo de Freitas – $8,400
- Sarah Frota – $7,100
- Justin Ledet – $7,000