Looking for help with your PGA lineups? In Roosevelt’s Hole In One, we provide our recommended plays for Draft, DraftKings and FanDuel for this weekend’s PGA event!
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Last week Justin Rose was able to take down the Farmers Insurance Open finishing up with a -21. He was my number one pick on Draft, so I did well over there. However, I faded him on DraftKings and didn’t do well over there. My punts, Albertson and Castro all did poorly and Matsuyama is the only top finisher that I had a decent amount of ownership on DraftKings.
This week, the PGA Tour goes to Scottsdale, Arizona for the Waste Management Open. What’s unique about this course is there’s a stadium on the 16th hole which is pretty cool! We have a decent field this week with a significant amount of top 50 golfers so this should be a competitive tournament! The course is the TPC Scottsdale, which measures a little over 7,200 yards and is a Par 71. This course is pretty much OWNED by Hideki Matsuyama. Other than last year where he withdrew due to injury, he’s finished 4th in 2014, 2nd in 2015, 1st in 2016 and 1st in 2017. I expect him to have good ownership but he’s worth it here. I’m targeting him on all sites this weekend.
Here are the key factors that I’m looking at this week in order of priority:
- Vegas odds to win
- Strokes Gained Approach
- Strokes Gained Off the Tee
- Strokes Gained Putting
- Par 5 Scoring
- Bogey Avoidance
- Course History
- Recent Form
Here are the tools that I used this week:
Draft Top 10 Plays
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On Draft, your primary concern is to draft the best golfers in the field regardless of position. A great way to assess that is to start with Vegas Odds to Win. Then look at the key statistics that are important to you and move golfers up or down as you see fit. Here are my top 10 plays on Draft
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Justin Thomas
- Xander Schauffele
- Jon Rahm
- Gary Woodland
- Webb Simpson
- Rickie Fowler
- Tony Finau
- Matt Kuchar
- Phil Mickelson
If you’re doing anything larger than Head to Head Drafts you should expand this list. I recommend starting with Vegas Odds to win and then look at the stats that I mentioned above to see which golfers are worth targeting after the top 10. There’s a lot of good golfers outside the top 10 that you can target. I like Emiliano Grillo for 3 player contests. Sungjae Im is someone I’ve been targeting every week and this week is no exception for 4 player contests. I don’t mind going back to Cameron Champ in 5 player contests even though he stunk last week. I like Abraham Ancer in the 6 player contests.
Draftkings & FanDuel Top 15 Plays
On DraftKings and FanDuel salary is important. A player can be a good player but a bad play on DraftKings or FanDuel because of their price. The following is my top 15 plays for each site sorted by salary on DraftKings. Since I’m not playing FanDuel at the moment, I won’t give 15 FanDuel plays. However, I will make some notes at the end of things to consider over there.
- Hideki Matsuyama $10,700 – See above.
- Gary Woodland $9,900 – He’s the best in the field in odds to win, strokes gained approach and off the tee.
- Tony Finau $9,500 – Strong floor with upside and a strong fit for this course. Great play to build around.
- Billy Horschel $8,800 – Not a lot of upside but safe play that should make the cut and not kill you.
- Cameron Champ $8,300 – He’s looked bad his last two events but the ceiling is undeniable.
- Luke List $8,000 – Very strong and safe play at this price point. Fits well for this course and good form.
- Zack Johnson $7,800 – He’s been hit or miss as of late but when he’s hit he can be a difference maker.
- Keegan Bradley $7,800 – He doesn’t have much upside at all, but has a solid safe floor.
- Emiliano Grillo $7,600 – Strong cash play with some upside.
- Talor Gooch $7,500 – Terrible floor but immense upside at this price point.
- Sungjae Im $7,300 – I’m playing him every week as long as they have him price less than $8,000. Too cheap.
- Jason Kokrak $7,300 – Solid floor at this price point. Doesn’t have a good ceiling though.
- Lucas Glover $7,200 – Strong floor with upside and top 3 in form in this field. No brainer play here.
- Kevin Tway $7,100 – Other than the Sony Open, he’s been pretty consistent this season.
- Joel Dahmen $6,800 – He’s made 8 out of his last 8 cuts and he’s only $6,800. Solid cheap floor here.
If you are playing FanDuel obviously Hideki is a lock over there and Tony Finau is still too cheap over there for his floor and upside. Billy Horschel is really safe and has a real solid floor at that price point. There’s actually nobody on my DraftKings list that I hate for FanDuel so you can absolutely use this list to build FanDuel lineups.
If you want to pay up for Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas on either site, I have no problem with it. They are good plays. I just won’t be playing them on DraftKings and will be sticking to Draft for them.