Fantasy Golf PGA Roosevelt’s Hole In One – Wednesday January 23rd 2019

Looking for help with your PGA lineups? In Roosevelt’s Hole In One, we provide our recommended plays for Draft, DraftKings and FanDuel for this weekend’s PGA event!

Tiger Woods

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Last week Adam Long ($6,200 on DraftKings) was able to beat out both Adam Hadwin and Phil Mickelson to take 1st place in the PGA Desert Classic. Needless to say, I had zero ownership of Adam Long. It’s not often that a player comes out of nowhere to take down an entire event. It happens though. My main lineup did poor, I had 3 players that missed the cut, two players that finished 34th and 40th and one player Im, who finished 12th. All my lineups had at least 2 players that missed the cut and the only lineups on DraftKings that cashed were the ones where I played Phil Mickelson. Draft, I didn’t cash either but I actually completely forgot to submit most of my drafts!

This week the PGA Tour stays in California for the Farmers Open! Like last week’s event, this is an event played on multiple golf courses as well. Unlike last week’s event, this is not a Pro-Am and the field is stacked with high-quality golfers. The event takes place at the Torrey Pines golf course located in San Diego, California. Three out of the Four rounds will be played on the South Course, which is a Par 72 that’s almost 7,700 yards. That is GIGANTIC for a PGA course. This is a difficult course. Over the last five years, the winning score was between -6 and -13. As a result, I am replacing Birdie & Better with Bogey Avoidance. On a course like this golfers are likely not going to run up the score. So it’s important that they at least make par. Golfers have made the cut here as high as 6 over Par.

Here are the key factors that I’m looking at in order of priority:

  • Vegas odds to win
  • Strokes Gained Approach
  • Strokes Gained Putting
  • Strokes Gained Off The Tee
  • Par 5 Scoring
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • Course History
  • Recent Form

Here are the tools that I used this week:

Chris Durell PGA Spreadsheet

Draft Top 10 Plays

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On Draft, your primary concern is to draft the best golfers in the field regardless of position. A great way to assess that is to start with Vegas Odds to Win. Then look at the key statistics that are important to you and move golfers up or down as you see fit. Here are my top 10 plays on Draft

  1. Justin Rose
  2. Rory Mcllroy
  3. Tiger Woods
  4. Jon Rahm
  5. Jason Day
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Xander Schauffele
  8. Marc Leishman
  9. Rickey Fowler
  10. Gary Woodland

If you’re doing anything larger than Head to Head Drafts you should expand this list. I recommend starting with Vegas Odds to win and then look at the stats that I mentioned above to see which golfers are worth targeting after the top 10. There’s a lot of good golfers outside the top 10 that you can target. I really like Champ and Im for your 4 player or higher contests. Matsuyama is worth a look for 5 player and higher. For six player or higher, Stanley, Palmer and CT Pan are definitely worth a look.

Draftkings & FanDuel Top 15 Plays

On DraftKings and FanDuel salary is important. A player can be a good player but a bad play on DraftKings or FanDuel because of their price. The following is my top 15 plays for each site sorted by salary on DraftKings. Since I’m not playing FanDuel at the moment, I won’t give 15 FanDuel plays. However, I will make some notes at the end of things to consider over there.

  1. Tiger Woods $10,500 – People don’t like him for some reason, they crazy, I love Tiger in this spot. He’s the best in the field if you average out odds to win, strokes gained approach and strokes gained: putting.
  2. Tony Finau $9,900 – Very chalky but strong floor and winning upside.
  3. Xander Schauffele $9,400 – One of my favorite plays in the field. He’s number one in the field in all of the key statistics that I look at if you average them out yet he’s 8th in price on DraftKings.
  4. Rickie Fowler $9,300 – This is a fantastic spot for Rickie. If you average out odds to win, strokes gained approach and strokes gained: putting, he’s second in the field only to Tiger.
  5. Patrick Cantalay $9,200 – His putting and bogey avoidance take him out of consideration for me in cash. However, he’s strong everywhere else and has good form so I think you got to have at least some exposure to him in GPP.
  6. Gary Woodland $9,000 – Another solid GPP play for this course. Like Cantalay his only weaknesses are putting and bogey avoidance. However, he’s solid enough everywhere else to smash and he’s got good course history here.
  7. Alexander Noren $8,600 – He’s a EURO Tour guy so he typically goes overlooked at events like this. That would be a mistake. He was the runner-up at this event last year
  8. Cameron Champ $8,500 – He’s number one in the field in Par 5 scoring and Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and he’s only $8,500? He’s never played here before and he did miss the cut in his last event that’s probably why. Still worth a look.
  9. Keegan Bradley $8,300 – If you are looking for a safe mid tier play with a strong floor and some ceiling Bradley is it. I probably won’t have him in my cash lineup due to the way that I’m constructing it this week but he’s great in all formats.
  10. Hideki Matsuyama $8,000 – Not the most consistent history here but he’s too good to be this cheap. FanDuel has him as their 3rd highest priced golfer at $11,700 just to give you an idea how cheap he is over here.
  11. Sungjae Im $7,800 – If you read my article regularly, you see I recommend this guy every single week. The field refuses to play him thus keeping his price low. Other than the two events where he missed the cut he has smashed value.
  12. Cheng-Tsung Pan $7,500 – Not the safest play here but he’s got good course history and I don’t mind taking some shots with him in GPP.
  13. Kevin Tway $7,200 – He’s not an exciting play. However, he’s a decent value play with a top 10 finish and 5 out of 6 cuts. I like Albertson and Castro more but he’s also worth a look if you need to save some salary.
  14. Anders Albertson $7,000 – He is number one in the field in strokes gained approach, has a top 10 finish and has made 5 of 6 cuts. Absolutely in play at only $7,000
  15. Roberto Castro $6,700 – Another really strong approach guy (5th in field) who is 5/5 in cuts made with a top 10 finish this season and he’s even cheaper at $6,700. Yes please!

If you are playing FanDuel keep in mind they changed the scoring system so you get a few more points for your golfers that finish in the top 5. If I’m playing FanDuel, Xander would be a lock for me over there. He’s number one in the field in the stats that I’m looking at but he’s like 15th in price over there. Tony Finau is also way too cheap over there as well. A lot of the guys I have listed above I also like over there, but those would be the first two names that I go to over there.

I actually hate all the top tier on DraftKings except for Woods. They are good golfers, but they are priced too high, I would much rather start with Woods or lower and build a more balanced lineup. I’ll get some exposure to these guys on Draft instead. That’s one of the advantages of playing on multiple sites.

Good luck!

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