Fantasy Golf PGA Roosevelt’s Hole In One – Wednesday January 16th 2019

Looking for help with your PGA lineups? In Roosevelt’s Hole In One, we provide our recommended plays for Draft, DraftKings and FanDuel for this weekend’s PGA event!

Justin Rose

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Last week Matt Kuchar was able to win the Sony Open in Hawaii defeating the runner up, Andrew Putnam by 4 strokes. If you read my article last week, Matt Kuchar was one of my top 15 plays on DraftKings and both Kuchar and Putnam were two of my top 15 plays on FanDuel. So if you happened to pick both of them you did very well. My man lineup on DraftKings did very well. I had Kuchar, Reavie who finished tied for 3rd, Howell who finished tied for 8th and DeChambeau who finished tied for 10th. With 4 golfers in the top 10 that put me in the top 100 in the GPP I entered with 10 lineups since that was my main lineup. Draft, I didn’t do as well. I had a lot of Gary Woodland who missed the cut, as well as a lot of Zach Johnson who also missed the cut so that hurt me.

This week, the PGA Tour heads to California for the Desert Challenge. This is the first Pro-Am of the 2019 season. If you are new to golf, a Pro-Am is a tournament where both professional and amateur golfers compete. With this particular tournament, golfers play on 3 courses instead of one. This is a cut event, however, the cut is after the first THREE rounds as oppose to the first TWO rounds. So no matter what happens, your golfer is going to get at least 3 rounds in and those who make the cut will get 4 rounds in. The MDF rule is in effect but it’s slightly different this week. If more than 78 golfers make the cut, only the top 60 get to play in round 4. So you want to shoot for golfers who are going to make the top 50. However, you do have more room for error than in most other tournaments because a miss cut golfer is still getting 3 rounds.

Every golfer will play a different course each round and those that make the cut will play the most difficult of the three on the final day. All three courses are Par 72s. All three courses are considered easy courses for the tour, even the most difficult one. They all have four Par 5s so we will be definitely looking at Par 5 scoring this week.

Here are the key factors that I’m looking at this week in order of priority:

  • Vegas odds to win
  • Strokes Gained Approach
  • Birdie or Better Percentage
  • Par 5 Scoring
  • Strokes Gained Putting
  • Course History
  • Recent Form
  • Cuts Made Percentage

Here are the tools I used for research this week:

Chris Durell PGA Spreadsheet

Draft Top 10 Plays

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On Draft, your primary concern is to draft the best golfers in the field regardless of position. A great way to assess that is to start with Vegas Odds to Win. Then look at the key statistics that are important to you and move golfers up or down as you see fit. Here are my top 10 plays on Draft

  1. Justin Rose
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Phil Mickelson
  4. Patrick Cantlay
  5. Charles Howell
  6. Aaron Wise
  7. Andrew Putnam
  8. Chez Reavie
  9. Adam Hadwin
  10. Abraham Ancer

If you’re doing anything larger than Head to Head Drafts you should expand this list. I recommend starting with Vegas Odds to win and then look at the stats that I mentioned above to see which golfers are worth targeting after the top 10.

DraftKings & FanDuel Top 15 Plays

On DraftKings and FanDuel salary is important. A player can be a good player but a bad DraftKings or FanDuel play if the salary is too high. The following list my top 10 plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Next to their name I indicate if they are a floor play or a ceiling play. A floor play is a player who should score a decent score even if they don’t win in relation to their salary. A ceiling play is a player who has the potential to score a score that exceeds their salary (or win if they are an expensive player) but also has the potential to post a very low score. You want floor plays in cash lineups and you want a combination of both in GPPs. I shoot for a minimum of at least 3 floor plays in GPP and am willing to go as high as 5 in some of my lineups. I also want to point out that ANYBODY who I listed as a play on Draft is also in play on DraftKings or FanDuel as a ceiling play. So if you need to go outside this list, feel free to start at the plays I mentioned on Draft. My top 10 plays are sorted by site salary.

DraftKings Top 15

  1. Jon Rahm $11,600 – Great floor. Average ceiling.
  2. Justin Rose $11,000 – Great floor. Average ceiling.
  3. Phil Mickelson $9,500 – Great floor. Average ceiling.
  4. Luke List $9,000 – Average floor. Good ceiling.
  5. Patton Kizzire $8,700 – Good floor. Good ceiling
  6. Sungjae Im $8,100 – Average floor. Average ceiling.
  7. Zach Johnson $7,700 – Average floor. Great ceiling.
  8. Richy Werenski $7,600 – Good floor. Great ceiling.
  9. Si Woo Kim $7,500 – Good floor. Average ceiling.
  10. Brian Gay $7,300 – Average floor. Average ceiling.
  11. Martin Laird $7,300 – Average floor. Good ceiling.
  12. Anders Albertson $7,200 – Good floor. Great ceiling.
  13. Roberto Castro $6,900 – Average floor. Average ceiling.
  14. Brandon Harkins $6,900 – Poor floor. Good ceiling.
  15. Johnson Wagner $6,300 – Poor floor. Average ceiling.

FanDuel Top 15

  1. Justin Rose $12,200 – Great floor. Average ceiling.
  2. Jon Rahm $11,900 – Great floor. Average ceiling.
  3. Patrick Cantlay $11,300 – Great floor. Good ceiling.
  4. Zach Johnson $10,300 – Average floor. Great ceiling.
  5. Aaron Wise $10,100 – Great floor. Good ceiling.
  6. Luke List $10,100 – Average floor. Good ceiling.
  7. Chez Reavie $9,800 – Great floor. Good ceiling.
  8. Scott Piercy $9,500 – Good floor. Great ceiling.
  9. Patton Kizzire $9,400 – Good floor. Good ceiling
  10. Sungjae Im $8,800 – Average floor. Average ceiling.
  11. Brian Gay $8,800 – Average floor. Average ceiling.
  12. Roberto Castro $8,700 – Average floor. Average ceiling.
  13. Hudson Swafford $8,200 – Good floor. Great ceiling
  14. Sam Saunders $7,900 – Average floor. Average ceiling.
  15. Brandon Harkins $7,800 – Poor floor. Good ceiling.

In looking for players outside my top 15, take a look at the spreadsheet that I linked to above. Look at their odds to win compared to their price. Are there any price discrepancies? If so, that might be a player worth targeting. Look at players who have a much different price on one site versus another. Look for players who may be overpriced but have good solid key statistics. Those are potential low owned GPP plays. Look for players who do really well at one or more of the key statistics I highlighted but bad at the others. Those are potential GPP plays as well. Look for sub $7,000 plays on DraftKings (sub $8,000 on FanDuel) who could outperform their salary.

Good luck!

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