Fantasy Golf PGA Roosevelt’s Hole In One – Wednesday January 9th 2019

Looking for help with your PGA lineups? In Roosevelt’s Hole In One, we provide our recommended plays for Draft, DraftKings and FanDuel for this weekend’s PGA event!

Justin Thomas

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Last week, Xander Schauffele was able to win the Sentry Tournament of Champions beating Gary Woodland by one stroke shooting 11 under par on the last day to win! If you read my article last week you saw that Xander and Gary Woodland were in my top 10 plays on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Unfortunately for me I had Woodland in my main lineup and not Xander. Had Woodland finished 1st, my main lineup would have scored 582 instead of 572 and instead of not cashing, my main lineup would have cashed in every contest I entered and instead of losing money last week, I would have made money. That’s how PGA goes sometimes. On the other hand, one of our readers played both in his lineup along with Justin Thomas and Bryson DeChambeau and he won over $1,500! On Draft, I took a small lost, mainly because I only cashed in half my head to heads and 60% of my 3 player contests. I didn’t cash in any of my 4 player or higher contests and that made the difference.

This week, the PGA Tour stays in Hawaii for the Sony Open. This is a much different course than the one they played on last week. It’s a Par 70 course that’s only a little above 7,000 yards. This is our first full-field event in 2019 so there is a cut this week and the MDF rule is in effect. This means that unless a lot of the high owned golfers do badly, you will absolutely need to get as many of your golfers through the cut as possible. Otherwise, you will be out of the running by Friday. You also have to be careful because if your golfers do make the cut but barely, they could become a victim to the MDF rule and still not play 4 rounds. This is very possible this week because this is a pretty easy course. So you want golfers that do well, not just barely get by.

Here are the key factors that I’m looking at this week in order of priority:

  • Vegas odds to win
  • Strokes Gained Approach
  • Birdie or Better Percentage
  • Par 4 Scoring
  • Strokes Gained Putting
  • Course History
  • Recent Form
  • Cuts Made Percentage

Here are the tools I used for research this week:

Chris Durell PGA Spreadsheet

Draft Top 10 Plays

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On Draft, your primary concern is to draft the best golfers in the field regardless of position. A great way to assess that is to start with Vegas Odds to Win. Then look at the key statistics that are important to you and move golfers up or down as you see fit. Here are my top 10 plays on Draft

  1. Justin Thomas
  2. Bryson DeChambeau
  3. Gary Woodland
  4. Jordan Spieth
  5. Marc Leishman
  6. Hideki Matsuyama
  7. Matt Kuchar
  8. Charles Howell
  9. Zach Johnson
  10. Cameron Champ

If you’re doing anything larger than Head to Head Drafts you should expand this list. I recommend starting with Vegas Odds to win and then look at the stats that I mentioned above to see which golfers are worth targeting after the top 10.

DraftKings & FanDuel Top 10 Plays

On DraftKings and FanDuel salary is important. A player can be a good player but a bad DraftKings or FanDuel play if the salary is too high. The following list my top 10 plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Next to their name I indicate if they are a floor play or a ceiling play. A floor play is a player who should score a decent score even if they don’t win in relation to their salary. A ceiling play is a player who has the potential to score a score that exceeds their salary (or win if they are an expensive player) but also has the potential to post a very low score. You want floor plays in cash lineups and you want a combination of both in GPPs. I shoot for a minimum of at least 3 floor plays in GPP and am willing to go as high as 5 in some of my lineups. I also want to point out that ANYBODY who I listed as a play on Draft is also in play on DraftKings or FanDuel as a ceiling play. So if you need to go outside this list, feel free to start at the plays I mentioned on Draft. My top 10 plays are sorted by site salary.

DraftKings Top 15

  1. Justin Thomas $11,400 – Good floor. Average ceiling.
  2. Bryson DeChambeau $11,100 – Great floor. Average ceiling.
  3. Cameron Champ $9,900 – Great floor. Good ceiling.
  4. Emiliano Grillo $9,200 – Good floor. Good ceiling.
  5. Charles Howell $8,900 – Good floor. Great ceiling.
  6. Zack Johnson $8,600 – Average floor. Great ceiling.
  7. Matt Kuchar $8,500 – Good floor. Great ceiling.
  8. Si Woo Kim $8,000 – Good floor. Average ceiling.
  9. Scott Piercy $7,600 – Good floor. Great ceiling.
  10. Chez Reavie $7,600 – Good floor. Good ceiling.
  11. Sungjae Im $7,500 – Average floor. Average ceiling.
  12. Brian Gay $7,300 – Average floor. Average ceiling.
  13. Troy Merritt $6,700 – Poor floor. Good ceiling.
  14. Scott Langley $6,600 – Poor floor. Average ceiling.
  15. Johnson Wagner $6,600 – Poor floor. Average ceiling.

FanDuel Top 15

  1. Bryson DeChambeau $12,400 – Great floor. Average ceiling.
  2. Justin Thomas $12,300 – Good floor. Average ceiling.
  3. Jordan Spieth $11,400 – Poor floor. Good ceiling.
  4. Matt Kuchar $10,500 – Good floor. Great ceiling.
  5. Charles Howell $10,400 – Good floor. Great ceiling.
  6. Emiliano Grillo $9,900 – Good floor. Good ceiling.
  7. Andrew Putnam $9,600 – Good floor. Good ceiling.
  8. Scott Piercy $9,500 – Good floor. Great ceiling.
  9. Abraham Ancer $9,300 – Average floor. Great ceiling.
  10. Danny Lee $9,000 – Good floor. Great ceiling.
  11. Sam Ryder $8,900 – Good floor. Great ceiling.
  12. Chris Kirk $8,900 – Average floor. Good ceiling.
  13. Patton Kizzire $8,800 – Good floor. Great ceiling.
  14. Sungjae Im $8,600 – Average floor. Average ceiling.
  15. Ryan Armour $8,300 – Good floor. Good ceiling.

In looking for players outside my top 15, take a look at the spreadsheet that I linked to above. Look at their odds to win compared to their price. Are there any price discrepancies? If so, that might be a player worth targeting. Look at players who have a much different price on one site versus another. Look for players who may be overpriced but have good solid key statistics. Those are potential low owned GPP plays. Look for players who do really well at one or more of the key statistics I highlighted but bad at the others. Those are potential GPP plays as well. Look for sub $7,000 plays on DraftKings (sub $8,000 on FanDuel) who could outperform their salary.

Good luck!

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