Looking for help with your PGA lineups? In Roosevelt’s Hole In One, we provide our recommended plays for Draft, DraftKings and FanDuel for this weekend’s PGA event!
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PGA is back!!! We are kicking off a brand new year 2019 and as such the break of the PGA Tour has come to an end and the tour continues. I did pretty well on Draft in 2018. DraftKings, I didn’t do as well. It was just a bad year on DraftKings all around. Only MLB and NFL was profitable for me. PGA I had the 2nd lowest lost for the year after EL basketball. One of the things I’ve done differently that I hope will improve my profitability is the practice of creating one “main” lineup and entering it in approximately half of my GPP contests. This lineup is a “cash” game type lineup. The good thing about this strategy is you really only need that lineup to really go off one, maybe two events in the year and you will be profitable.
This week the PGA Tour takes us to Maui, Hawaii for the Sentry Tournament of Champions! This is a Par 73 course that’s a little over 7,400 yards with 4 Par 5 holes on it. There’s no cut this week and last year Dustin Johnson won this event. We have a very small field this week. Only 36 golfers to pick from. On a large course like this, you want to target big hitters who are strong on the approach and can score well. Dustin Johnson is a perfect example of this. He’s number 3 in the field in strokes gained approach. He’s number 2 in the field in strokes gained off the tee. He’s number 5 in birdie or better percentage and number 6 in Par 5 scoring. Golfers that do well in these categories make great targets for this event.
Here are the key factors I’m looking at in order of priority:
- Vegas odds to win
- Strokes Gained Approach
- Strokes Gained Off The Tee
- Par 5 Scoring
- Birdie or Better Percentage
- Strokes Gained Putting
- Recent Form
- Course History
- Cuts Made Percentage
Here are the tools I used for research this week:
Draft Top 10 Plays
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On Draft, your primary concern is to draft the best golfers in the field regardless of position. A great way to assess that is to start with Vegas Odds to Win. These are my top 10 plays in my preferred Draft order.
- Dustin Johnson
- Justin Thomas
- Brooks Koepka
- Jon Rahm
- Rory Mcllroy
- Jason Day
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Patrick Reed
- Cameron Champ
- Webb Simpson
These are the golfers I would target with my first 10 picks. If you’re doing anything larger than Head to Head Drafts you should expand this list. I recommend starting with Vegas Odds to win and then look at the stats that I mentioned above to see which golfers are worth targeting after the top 10. Some golfers that come to mind include Gary Woodland, Francisco Molinari and for 4 person drafts towards the end Keegan Bradley.
DraftKings & FanDuel Top 10 Plays
On DraftKings and FanDuel salary is important. A player can be a good player but a bad DraftKings or FanDuel play if the salary is too high. The following list my top 10 plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Next to their name I indicate if they are a floor play or a ceiling play. A floor play is a player who should score a decent score even if they don’t win in relation to their salary. A ceiling play is a player who has the potential to score a score that exceeds their salary (or win if they are an expensive player) but also has the potential to post a very low score. You want floor plays in cash lineups and you want a combination of both in GPPs. I shoot for a minimum of at least 3 floor plays in GPP and am willing to go as high as 5 in some of my lineups. I also want to point out that ANYBODY who I listed as a play on Draft is also in play on DraftKings or FanDuel as a ceiling play. So if you need to go outside this list, feel free to start at the plays I mentioned on Draft. My top 10 plays are sorted by site salary.
DraftKings Top 10
- Dustin Johnson $11,000 – Great floor. Average ceiling.
- Justin Thomas $10,500 – Great floor. Average ceiling.
- Bryson DeChambeau $8,700 – Great floor. Great ceiling.
- Xander Schauffele $8,300 – Average floor. Great ceiling.
- Cameron Champ $8,100 – Great floor. Great ceiling.
- Gary Woodland $8,000 – Great floor. Great ceiling.
- Marc Leishman $7,700 – Good floor. Good ceiling.
- Aaron Wise $7,500 – Good floor. Average ceiling.
- Keegan Bradley $7,300 – Good floor. Great ceiling.
- Billy Horschel $7,000 – Average floor. Good ceiling.
FanDuel Top 10
- Dustin Johnson $12,000 – Great floor. Average ceiling.
- Jon Rahm $10,500 – Average floor. Great ceiling.
- Webb Simpson $10,000 – Great floor. Good ceiling.
- Xander Schauffele $9,500 – Average floor. Great ceiling.
- Gary Woodland $9,400 – Great floor. Great ceiling.
- Cameron Champ $9,100 – Great floor. Great ceiling.
- Charles Howell $8,500 – Poor floor. Great ceiling.
- Keegan Bradley $8,300 – Good floor. Great ceiling.
- Aaron Wise $8,200 – Good floor. Average ceiling.
- Billy Horschel $8,100 – Average floor. Good ceiling.
In looking for players outside my top 10, take a look at the spreadsheet that I linked to above. Look at their odds to win compared to their price. Are there any price discrepancies? If so, that might be a player worth targeting. Look at players who have a much different price on one site versus another. Look for players who may be overpriced but have good solid key statistics. Those are potential low owned GPP plays (i.e. Brooks Koepka). Look for sub $7,000 plays who could outperform their salary (i.e. Kevin Tway)