Looking for advice on who to play in your MMA lineups? In today’s edition of MMA Roosevelt’s Scouting Report, I break down Saturday’s slate for UFC Fight Night live from Los Angeles, California!
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Welcome to my breakdown of UFC 232! On the last card my main lineup was trash but thanks to GPP lineups I was barely able to cash. Hopefully I will have better luck on this card.
How I Rank Fighters
My rankings are based on the following criteria
- Odds to win the fight.
- DraftKings scoring average last 5 fights
- Draftkings career scoring average.
- Odds to win inside the distance.
- Fight Matrix weight class ranking
- Significant strikes landed per minute
- Average takedowns landed per fight
I have a spreadsheet with a formula that I built based on these factors. Each fighter has an overall rank from 1 to 24. Most of my recommendations will come from my rankings but I also factor in my own thoughts based on my analysis of the fight.
So with that here is a breakdown of the fighters.
Elite Plays – Elite fighters are fighters that I expect to win their fights and exceed their value on DraftKings. They have high scoring floors due to their ability to score points in multiple ways. They also have high scoring ceilings due to their ability to finish the fight, score a lot of points or both. Elite fighters are great plays in both cash contests as well as GPP contests. They are fighters that you can build your lineups around and have lots of exposure to.
- Cris Cyborg – $9,200
- Jon Jones – $9,100
Cris Cyborg and Jon Jones are easily the top two plays on the card. They are both top 5 on the card in odds to win, inside the distance finishing odds, DraftKings scoring averages and fighter matrix rankings. They also land significant strikes at a solid rate and they are both fighting in 5 round fights giving them a higher floor than other favorites in the card. They are must plays in cash lineups and make a great core to build around in GPP lineups.
Good Plays – Good fighters are fighters that should do well. However, they have one or more issues that prevent them from being an Elite play. They could be priced too high. They could be an underdog. They could have a more limited scoring path to meeting value. Good fighters are fighters that you try to get into your lineup after you have gotten as many Elite fighters in.
- Petr Yan – $9,300
- Alexander Gustafsson – $7,100
- Alex Volkanovski – $7,500
- Walt Harris – $8,600
- Nathaniel Wood – $8,200
- Corey Anderson – $7,300
Yan is a strong play in all formats. His lack of UFC fights is the only thing keeping him from an Elite ranking. Gustafsson is a strong cash play due to his scoring upside even in a loss and his last fight with Jones was closer than what the odds are currently reflecting. That fight is stackable in cash contests. Volkanovski has a tough matchup but he has significant GPP winning upside at that price point. Harris is unplayable in cash but he’s got GPP winning upside if he gets the finish like he is suppose to. Wood is a great mid price option to build around and Anderson has significant odds value as he’s priced as a significant underdog in a fight where he’s only a slight underdog.
Fair Plays – These are fighters that you can use to round out your lineups. You need one or two more picks and you can’t fit anymore Elite or good fighters? This is where you go next. Here you have fighters that should win but might be priced too high. You also have mid-priced fighters who are in really close matchups with not as high of an upside. Finally, you have cheap fighters that are either live underdogs or are worth a punt to make room for more Elite or Good fighters.
- Ilir Latifi – $8,900
- Chad Mendes – $8,700
- Curtis Millender – $8,800
- Michael Chiesa – $9,000
- Amanda Nunes – $7,000
- Andre Ewell – $8,000
- Uriah Hall – $8,300
- Montel Jackson – $8,400
- Bevon Lewis – $7,900
- Siyar Bahadurzada – $7,400
- Brian Kelleher – $7,800
- Carlos Condit – $7,200
Latifi is actually a pretty solid play. The problem is he’s priced as a finish or bust play. The same is true for Mendes who is going to have trouble meeting value if he doesn’t finish. Millender is also in the priced too high boat as is Chiesa. Nunes should lose here but at $7,000 she could meet value even in a loss if she doesn’t get finished so I like her in all formats. Ewell is only a fair play because I believe he will lose. However, he can exceed value with a win in a very close projected fight so don’t be afraid to get exposure if you’re playing multiple lineups. As for Hall, Jackson, Lewis, Bahadurzada, Kelleher and Condit, these are fighters that you fill in once you need one more lineup. They are definitely not fighters to build around. However, they all have paths to meet or exceed value on this card.
Poor Plays – These are fighters that are either very unlikely to win or they are very unlikely to meet value. They should not be played at all if you are playing less than 20 lineups. If you are playing more than 20 and you want to play any of them, they should be the lowest owned fighters in your player pool.
- Ryan Hall – $9,400
- Cat Zingano – $8,500
- Megan Anderson – $7,700
- Andrei Arlovski – $7,600
- Douglas Silva De Andrade – $6,900
- BJ Penn – $6,800