Looking for advice on who to play in your MMA lineups? In today’s edition of MMA Roosevelt’s Scouting Report, I break down Saturday’s slate for UFC Fight Night live from Villa Soldati Argentina!
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Welcome to my breakdown of UFC Fight Night! Last week was one of my worst cards in a while. Only had 2 lineups that cashed on the whole card! The killer this time with Mike Perry who tapped out in the 1st round tapping out a bunch of my lineups with him! Let’s see if we can do better this week.
This week, the UFC makes its debut in Argentina for fight night! I’m short on time this week so instead of giving a full breakdown, I’m going to have one sentence summaries of my thoughts on each fighter on the card. Let’s get started!
How I Rank Fighters
My rankings are based on the following criteria
- Odds to win the fight.
- DraftKings scoring average last 5 fights
- Draftkings career scoring average.
- Odds to win inside the distance.
- Fight Matrix weight class ranking
- Significant strikes landed per minute
- Average takedowns landed per fight
I have a spreadsheet with a formula that I built based on these factors. Each fighter has an overall rank from 1 to 24. Most of my recommendations will come from my rankings but I also factor in my own thoughts based on my analysis of the fight.
So with that here is a breakdown of the fighters.
Elite Plays – Elite fighters are fighters that I expect to win their fights and exceed their value on DraftKings. They have high scoring floors due to their ability to score points in multiple ways. They also have high scoring ceilings due to their ability to finish the fight, score a lot of points or both. Elite fighters are great plays in both cash contests as well as GPP contests. They are fighters that you can build your lineups around and have lots of exposure to.
- Khalil Rountree $8,800 – If you’re not sure which fighter to start your lineups with, this is where you start. He should absolutely smash in this spot.
- Santiago Ponzinibbio $9,000 – Has multiple paths to meet value at this price tag and he’s at home too? Sign me up!
Good Plays – Good fighters are fighters that should do well. However, they have one or more issues that prevent them from being an Elite play. They could be priced too high. They could be an underdog. They could have a more limited scoring path to meeting value. Good fighters are fighters that you try to get into your lineup after you have gotten as many Elite fighters in.
- Marlon Vera $9,200 – He’s tough, adaptable and has fought a higher quality of competition. Anything can happen in MMA, but don’t see how he loses here.
- Alexandre Pantoja $9,300 – Solid all-around fighter who should win and dominate. However, there is submission risk that prevents him from being elite.
- Michel Prazeres $8,600 – Despite the reach disadvantage he should do well in this spot here. My biggest concern though is whether he can win AND meet value.
- Poliana Botelho $8,300 – Fighting a really close match on paper. However, her opponent looked really bad on the scales so I’ll give her the edge here.
- Cezar Ferreira $8,400 – He’s in a very solid spot here, however, his chin always makes him a risk and will keep him from being an elite play.
- Darren Elkins $7,500 – I think Lamas beats him in the fight, but I think Elkins is the better play. There’s risk Lamas wins and doesn’t meet value, but Elkins likely wins you a GPP if he wins.
- Hector Aldana $8,000 – He’s not that great but hits hard and is fighting what I feel is inferior competition. I also don’t mind the slight odds value in his price either.
Fair Fighters – These are fighters that you can use to round out your lineups. You need one or two more picks and you can’t fit anymore Elite or good fighters? This is where you go next. Here you have fighters that should win but might be priced too high. You also have mid-priced fighters who are in really close matchups with not as high of an upside. Finally, you have cheap fighters that are either live underdogs or are worth a punt to make room for more Elite or Good fighters.
- Nad Narimani $9,100 – Should be able to win with a wrestling based game plan and he’s fighting a smaller fighter fighting on short notice. However, not safe by ANY stretch of the imagination.
- Humberto Bandenay $8,900 – He’s a lot of flash but I question the substance. I’ll have some shares because he absolutely has finishing ability here, however, not excited about him.
- Ricardo Lamas $8,700 – I feel pretty confident that he wins, however, not as confident that he meets value as he’s likely going to need a finish to do that.
- Cynthia Calvillo $7,900 – She looked horrible on the scale but if she bounces back this is her fight to lose. GPP play due to decreased ownership scared off by weigh ins.
- Bartosz Fabinski $7,600 – Don’t really like him in this spot here, but on a card with not a lot to like for underdog, he’s arguably the best of the value tier.
- Devin Powell $7,700 – He’s the underdog and always looks like he’s going to lose but somehow wins. Need to find value somewhere, this is as good a spot as any.
- Jesus Pinedo $8,500 – Has looked good but hasn’t really fought anybody. If I have any exposure it will be very little.
- Anderson Dos Santos $7,100 – This fight can go either way but I absolutely will have some shares in Dos Santos.
- Neil Magny $7,200 – I don’t think he wins but he’s one of those “need to find value somewhere” plays.
- Austin Arnett $7,300 – Like Magny, I don’t think he wins but he’s a decent spot for seeking out value on this card.
- Ulka Saski $6,900 – Worth some shares due to potential submission victory but don’t go crazy here. More likely than not, he loses in this spot.
- Ian Heinisch $7,800 – Not excited about him at all, but I don’t mind a little bit of exposure.
Poor Fighters – These are fighters that are either very unlikely to win or they are very unlikely to meet value. They should not be played at all if you are playing less than 20 lineups. If you are playing more than 20 and you want to play any of them, they should be the lowest owned fighters in your player pool.
- Johnny Walker $7,400 – There’s no way I’m playing Walker today and if he wins, good game. He does have a decent inside the distance win odds if you are looking for a reason to play him.
- Laureano Staropoli $8,200 – He’s overclassed at this level. Not interested even a little bit.
- Gudio Cannetti $7,000 – He’s a very mistake prown fighter that I have no interest in investing in.