Looking for help with your PGA lineups? In Roosevelt’s Hole In One, we provide our recommended plays for Draft, DraftKings and FanDuel for this weekend’s PGA event!
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Last week Matt Kuchar took home the top prize finishing one stroke ahead of runner up Danny Lee. Kuchar wasn’t really a target for me last weekend. However Danny Lee was. On Draft I pretty much broke even for the weekend. DraftKings and Fanduel I was unable to cash. While I was able to get most of my main lineup through the cup I didn’t have exposure to anybody on the top 5 except for Lee. This was a mistake especially considering that Spain was a target for me on Draft. There was no logical reason as to why he shouldn’t have been a target for me on DraftKings and FanDuel as well.
This week the PGA Tour takes us to Georgia for the RSM Classic. This is actually the last event that we are going to have for the rest of the year. Hopefully we can make the most of it and close out 2018 with a bang! This event is played on two different courses. Both are under 7100 yards. The Seaside Course will be used the entire weekend. The Plantation Course will be used on Thursday and Friday. The Seaside course only has two Par 5s so I will be focused on Par 4 scoring this weekend. Since the course is small approach and putting are more important this weekend than gaining strokes off the tee. Top 70s and ties advance after 2 rounds and the MDF rule is in effect if more than 78 golfers make the cut.
Here are the key factors I’m looking at in order of priority:
- Vegas odds to win
- Strokes Gained Approach
- Par 4 Scoring
- Birdie or Better Percentage
- Strokes Gained Putting
- Recent Form
- Course History
- Cuts Made Percentage
Here are the tools I used for research this week:
Draft Top 15 Plays
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On Draft, your primary concern is to draft the best golfers in the field regardless of position. A great way to assess that is to start with Vegas Odds to Win. New this week, I’m going to give you my top 15 plays in my preferred Draft order. I’ll also give you some plays that I would look at later on in the draft if you’re playing in 6 person, 8 person and 10 person drafts.
- Webb Simpson
- Cheng-Tsung Pan
- Cameron Champ
- JJ Spaun
- Chesson Hadley
- Lucas Glover
- Austin Cook
- Russell Henley
- Luke List
- Joaquin Niemann
- Zach Johnson
- Sam Ryder
- Charles Howell
- Chris Kirk
- Denny McCarthy
These are the golfers I would target with my first 15 picks. If you’re doing anything larger than 3 person Drafts you may need to expand this list. I recommend starting with Vegas Odds to win and then look at the stats that I mentioned above to see which golfers are worth targeting after the top 15. Some golfers that come to mind include Keith Mitchell, Stewart Cink and Jim Furyk.
DraftKings & FanDuel Top 15 Plays (Floor & Ceiling)
On DraftKings and FanDuel salary is important. A player can be a good player but a bad DraftKings or FanDuel play if the salary is too high. The following list my top 15 plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Next to their name I indicate if they are a floor play or a ceiling play. A floor play is a player who should score a decent score even if they don’t win in relation to their salary. A ceiling play is a player who has the potential to score a score that exceeds their salary (or win if they are an expensive player) but also has the potential to post a very low score. You want floor plays in cash lineups and you want a combination of both in GPPs. I shoot for a minimum of at least 3 floor plays in GPP and am willing to go as high as 5 in some of my lineups. I also want to point out that ANYBODY who I listed as a play on Draft is also in play on DraftKings or FanDuel as a ceiling play. So if you need to go outside this list, feel free to start at the plays I mentioned on Draft. My top 15 plays are sorted by DraftKings salary.
- Webb Simpson $11,800 DK $12,200 FD – Great Floor, Limited Ceiling
- Cameron Champ $10,900 DK $11,400 FD – Average Floor, Great Ceiling
- Chang-Tsung Pan $9,700 DK $10,400 FD – Great Floor, Average Ceiling.
- Austin Cook $9,400 DK $10,200 FD Average Floor, Great Ceiling
- Joaquin Niemann $8,900 DK $11,000 FD Good Floor, Average Ceiling
- Sam Ryder $8,600 DK $9,900 FD Great Floor, Great Ceiling
- Jim Furyk $8,200 DK $9,500 FD Poor Floor, Great Ceiling
- Sungjae Im $8,000 DK $8,700 FD Poor Floor, Great Ceiling
- Bud Cauley $7,900 DK $9,800 FD Poor Floor, Great Ceiling
- Stewart Cink $7,700 DK $9,800 FD Poor Floor, Great Ceiling
- Keith Mitchell $7,500 DK $9,500 FD Great Floor, Average Ceiling
- Ryan Armour $7,500 DK $8,200 FD Great Floor, Average Ceiling
- Johnson Wagner $7,100 DK $9,400 FD Great Floor, Limited Ceiling
- Anders Albertson $7,300 DK $8,400 FD Poor Floor, Great Ceiling
- Joel Dahmen $6,900 DK$9,600 FD Great Floor Good Ceiling (Better DK play than FD)
In looking for players outside my top 15, take a look at the spreadsheet that I linked to above. Look at their odds to win compared to their price. Are there any price discrepancies? If so, that might be a player worth targeting. Look at players who have a much different price on one site verses another. Look for players who may be overpriced but have good solid key statistics. Those are potential low owned GPP plays (i.e. Charles Howell). Look for sub $7,000 plays who could make the cut (i.e. Peter Malnati)