Looking for advice on who to play in your MMA lineups? In today’s edition of MMA Roosevelt’s Scouting Report I break down Saturday’s slate for UFC Fight Night live from Moncton, New Brunswick Canada
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Welcome to my breakdown of UFC Fight Night! It’s been several weeks since our last event, UFC 229. That was a great event for me, I absolutely crushed that card! 6 out of the 10 lineups I entered in the big $10 100k to first event cashed and in some of the smaller GPPS, I’ve had as many as 16 out of 16 lineups cash! Hopefully, we can continue the winning ways this week!
We have a nice sized card featuring 13 fighters that we can use to build lineups this week.
How I Rank Fighters
My rankings are based on the following criteria
- Odds to win the fight.
- DraftKings scoring average last 5 fights
- Draftkings career scoring average.
- Odds to win inside the distance.
- Fight Matrix weight class ranking
- Significant strikes landed per minute
- Average takedowns landed per fight
I have a spreadsheet with a formula that I built based on these factors. Each fighter has an overall rank from 1 to 24. Most of my recommendations will come from my rankings but I also factor in my own thoughts based on my analysis of the fight.
So with that here is a breakdown of the fighters. Since I’m short on time this week, I’m just going to list the plays that I like for each category.
Elite Plays – Elite fighters are fighters that I expect to win their fights and exceed their value on DraftKings. They have high scoring floors due to their ability to score points in multiple ways. They also have high scoring ceilings due to their ability to finish the fight, score a lot of points or both. Elite fighters are great plays in both cash contests as well as GPP contests. They are fighters that you can build your lineups around and have lots of exposure to.
- Misha Cirkunov $9,300
- Volkan Oezdemir $8,400
- Michael Johnson $9,500
Good Plays – Good fighters are fighters that should do well. However they have one or more issues that prevent them from being an Elite play. They could be priced too high. They could be an underdog. They could have a more limited scoring path to meeting value. Good fighters are fighters that you try to get into your lineup after you have gotten as many Elite fighters in.
- Calvin Kattar $9,100
- Nasrat Haqparast $9,700
- Gian Villante $9,000
- Alex Garcia $8,500
- Anthony Smith $7,800
- Andre Soukhamthath $8,600
Fair Fighters – These are fighters that you can use to round out your lineups. You need one or two more picks and you can’t fit anymore Elite or good fighters? This is where you go next. Here you have fighters that should win but might be priced too high. You also have mid priced fighters who are in really close matchups with not as high of an upside. Finally, you have cheap fighters that are either live underdogs or are worth a punt to make room for more Elite or Good fighters.
- Te Edwards $9,400
- Sarah Moras $8,700
- Marcelo Golm $7,400
- Nordine Taleb $8,200
- Stevie Ray $8,300
- Sean Strickland $8,000
- Patrick Cummings $6,900 (Will lose but has paths to get points in a loss)
- Arjan Bhullar $8,800
- Talita Bernardo $7,500
- Don Madge $6,800
Poor Fighters – These are fighters that are either very unlikely to win or they are very unlikely to meet value. They should not be played at all if you are playing less than 20 lineups. If you are playing more than 20 and you want to play any of them, they should be the lowest owned fighters in your player pool.
- Ed Herman $7,300
- Court McGee $7,700
- Jessin Ayari $7,900
- Chris Fishgold $7,100
- Jonathan Martinez $7,600
- Artem Lobov $6,700
- Thibault Gouti $6,500