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Welcome to Euroleague round 4! Last week was a rough week. Once again, I had most of the winning plays in my player pool. However, it’s not enough to just be on the right plays. You have to have all the right plays in the right combination of lineups and that’s the part that I was missing. This is why it’s important to take a long-term approach. I just systematically play 5% of my bankroll on every Euroleague slate and let the contest pool prizes fall where they may!
Today we have for the first time this season a FIVE game slate! That’s a lot of players to analyze so let’s see what we can come up with for today’s slate!
Here’s a breakdown of the 10 teams along with the key statistics that I look at for each team. Included are their odds to win, their implied offensive total, how well their opponent defends against the guard position and how well their opponent defends against the forward position. When building your lineups you want to ideally target a favorite team that has a high implied total with players that play positions where their opponent has a low rank for how they guard that position. It’s a 1 to 16 scale 16 means they give up a lot to that position 1 means they limit that position.
The chart is interesting this week because there are a number of contradictory factors. For example, Real Madrid is the largest favorite to win by far and has the highest implied total. However, have the 2nd worst matchup for the guard position and only an average matchup to the forward position. In situations like this where the data contradicts, I lean more towards the implied total and the individual player performance. Therefore, I still like Real Madrid players today.
So now, let’s take a look at the players that we want to consider on this slate:
Top Tier Guards
Alexey Shved KHI $14,800 – Once again, he was the highest owned player last week at 64% ownership. He had the highest fantasy points scored at 43. He was in the winning fantasy lineup. He’s a lock for me this week in all formats, cash and GPP. I will have him in every single one of my lineups.
Mike James AXM $11,600 – Last week he had a tough matchup. However, he was still highly owned at 27% ownership. He still posted a solid score with 33.25 fantasy points. He also was good for a 3rd place GPP finish. He’s got a tough matchup once again this week. However, I am totally fine with James in all formats especially with an implied total of 85.75. Also Eurohoops.net is reporting that his Nemanja Nedovic is out due to a muscle injury. That increases James value even more.
Scottie Wilbekin MTA $10,200 – He had a tough matchup last week but once again he came through in a big way! He was the 4th highest player owned at 39% ownership and was the top fantasy points producer on his slate with 41.5 points. He was also in the winning lineup on the Thursday slate. However, Wilbekin is questionable to play today. Euroleague teams also play games in their home country and Wilbekin missed the last game. Under normal circumstances, he would absolutely be somebody that I will be targeting today. However, with so many good guards on the slate today, I will have very little Wilbekin unless I get news that he’s definiely going to play.
Sergio Llull RMB $10,100 – Llull is just not getting ANY respect from the Euroleage fantasy players. The dude was only 2% owned last week. This is understandable considering he only produced 1.25 fantasy points the game before. However, he performed very week putting up 32.25 fantasy points. Madrid has a tough positional matchup but they also have the highest implied total and are the largest favorites on the slate. I wouldn’t play Llull in cash. However, I expect he’s going to go low owend once again this week with all these great options in the top tier and because of that I absolutely do not mind some exposure to him in GPP.
Kostas Sloukas FBD $9,500 – He’s got a great matchup this week playing for the favorite in a relatively close game against a team that gives up fantasy points to guards at the 3rd highest rate in the league. He did it with only 1% ownership as well. Like Llull I wouldn’t play him in cash. However, I absolutely am taking a hard look at him in GPP.
Campazzo, Granger and Beaubois are all good plays this week as well. However, you can’t play everybody so I’m going to fade these 3.
Mid Tier Guards
I don’t really have any interest in the Mid Tier this week. If Scottie Wilbekin is out I don’t mind if you want to play DeAndre Kane. However, there’s a play in the value tier that I like a lot more than Kane so I doubt I will be going to Kane today even if Wilbekin misses. I also don’t mind Dogus Balby ($7,500) or Michael Roll ($8,300) here. However, I don’t think I will have a lot of them if any because I like the top tier so much more.
Value Tier Guards
Nemanja Gordic BUD $6,500 – He played a season-high 27 minutes last week and was productive putting up 24.75 fantasy points. He also got another 34 minutes in his domestic league game too this week. It’s clear that Buducnost believes in him and when you consider that Real Madrid gives up the 2nd highest fantasy points to the guard position, I have huge interest in Gordic in all formats this week.
Ali Muhammad FBD $5,800 – I liked him even when he was just coming off the bench shooting 3’s as a GPP only play. With Tyler Ennis out that opens up the door for even more minutes for Muhammad. In their domestic league game without Ennis Muhammad scored 14 points including 4 for 6 from downtown, grabbed 2 rebounds and dished out 5 assists. I’ll take that for 5.8k especially for a player that was less than 6% owned last week.
Dee Bost KHI $5,700 – He was the 4th highest owned player on the slate last Friday and put up a miserable 7.5 fantasy points. Nobody is going to play him today and that’s exactly why you should play him today. He had an awesome game this week in his domestic league, scoring 22 points grabbing 5 rebounds and dishing out 5 assist along with 3 steals as well. I believe last week was a fluke so I’ll be getting right back on the Bost train this week.
John Dibartolomeo MTA $4,200 – This RIGHT HERE is the big money play IF Scottie Wilbekin misses today’s game. In the Israel Superleague game on Tuesday, Dibartolomeo lead the team in minutes played with 33 minutes with Wilbekin out. He scored 22 points, grabbed 7 rebound and had 2 assist. That type of performance wins you a GPP today and nobody is going to have him because nobody is going to be looking at domestic league performances. Most Euroleague players don’t even know what a domestic league is. So if you get word that Wilbekin is going to miss, do everything you can to get this guy in your lineup!
Top Tier Forwards
Nikola Milutinov OLY $10,300 – Milutinov has been a strong and consistent play so far this season. I definitely have interest if I can fit him in my lineups. The problem is with so many awesome options at guard this week, he’s going to be tough to pay up for. However, if I can do it, I am interested in all formats.
Valdimir Micov AXM $9,900 – He’s been almost as good as Milutinov at a slighly discounted price and a fraction of the ownership. He’s also got a better matchup this week as well. He’s going to be tough to pay up for with the guards being so pricey. However, I really like Micov as a GPP option considering he was less than 5% owned last week.
Anthony Gill KHI $9,600 – He’s getting the minutes, which gives him a solid floor for cash games and he’s got a decent matchup as well. He’s not a must have, but I don’t mind him on this slate.
Mid Tier Forwards
Arturas Gudaitis AXM $8,700 – Instead of paying up for the top tier at forward, I really like Gudaitis at the top of the mid tier today. He’s got consistent production and they have the best forward matchup on the slate today.
Earl Clark $8,500 and Tarik Black $8,400 have solid floors. However, I don’t know if they have the ceiling that you need to win a GPP this week. If you’re going to bet on one of them go with Clark as he has the better matchup.
Fade Anthony Randolph and Walter Tavares this week. Last week, Gustavo Ayon returned and only played 12 minutes. Randolph scored 17.5 fantasy points in 19 minutes. Walter Tavares played 27 minutes and put up 30.75 fantasy points. So he should be popular. However, in their domestic game this week it was Santi Yusta and Fabien Causeur who got the minutes, not Tavares. Therefore, I recommend that you fade Tavares this week
Value Tier Forwards
Alen Omic BUD $6,800 – He’s been productive and consistent making him a great cash play. While he might not have the upside that you need for a winning GPP performance, he does have the floor that won’t kill you.
Angelo Caloiaro MTA $6,700 – He didn’t put up the greatest fantasy performance but 18.75 doesn’t kill you and he still played 27 minutes. I don’t mind Caloiaro this week.
Jordan Mickey KHI $5,500 – He scored 22.5 fantasy points and is still only $5,500. Definitely my favorite forward play this week.