PGA Roosevelt’s Hole In One – Wednesday October 24th, 2018

Looking for help with your PGA lineups? In Roosevelt’s Hole In One we provide our recommended plays for Draft, DraftKings and FanDuel for this weekend’s PGA event!

Picture by Jeffrey Gordon via Wikipedia Commons

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Last week Brooks Koepka took home the top prize in The CJ Cup event. He was in both my top 10 Draft and top 15 FanDuel/DraftKings lists last week. My cash lineup didn’t do well. However, I had a very strong GPP lineup that had Brooks in it that put up 565 points. Gary Woodland came in 2nd place. He was also in my top 15 FanDuel/DraftKings. I had a 52% ROI on DraftKings. Draft I didn’t well, taking a -68% ROI loss. I forgot to set my lineup on FanDuel so won’t really count that.

This week, the PGA Tour moves on to Shanghai, China for the WGC-HSBC Championship. This course will be played on the Sheshan International Golf Course. It’s a Par 72 course a little over 7,200 yards. The scores very a lot on this course. Winners have won going -11 under par and winners have won going -24 under par. Gaining strokes off the tee and on the approach are going to be very important. Also, since there’s no cut, birdie or better ability is also very important. We have 4 Par 5 holes on this course, putting Par 5 scoring into play once again.

Here are the key factors I’m looking at in order of priority:

  • Vegas odds to win
  • Recent Form
  • Strokes Gained Approach
  • Strokes Gained Off The Tee
  • Par 5 Scoring
  • Birdie or Better Percentage
  • Strokes Gained Putting
  • Course History

Here are the tools I used for research this week:

Chris Durell PGA Spreadsheet

Draft Top 10 Plays

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On Draft, your primary concern is to draft the best golfers in the field regardless of position. A great way to assess that is to start with Vegas Odds to Win. Going strictly by Vegas Odds these are the top 10 golfers in the field:

  1. Dustin Johnson
  2. Brooks Koepka
  3. Rory Mcllroy
  4. Jason Day
  5. Hideki Matsuyama
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Tommy Fleetwood
  8. Jon Rahm
  9. Paul Casey
  10. Tyrrell Hatton

I feel like the Vegas odds have it right this week when you look at the recent form and the key statistics. I can see downgrading Jason Day some based on the key statistics but I’m personally am going to leave him where he’s at.

As for the positions outside of top 10 start off with ranking them by Vegas odds to win. Some golfers you can look to target higher than their Vegas odds include Rafael Cabrera Bello who is arguably a top 10 pick, Kyle Stanley who is easily a top 20 pick for me and arguably a top 15. I also like Keegan Bradley and Emiliano Grillo as top 20 plays and Chez Reavie as a top 30 play for me.

DraftKings & FanDuel Top 15 Plays (Floor & Ceiling)

On DraftKings and FanDuel salary is important. A player can be a good player but a bad DraftKings  or FanDuel play if the salary is too high. The following list are my top 15 plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Next to their name I indicate if they are a floor play or a ceiling play. A floor play is a player who should score a decent score even if they don’t win in relation to their salary. A ceiling play is a player who has the potential to score a score that exceeds their salary (or win if they are an expensive player) but also has the potential to post a very low score. You want only floor plays in cash lineups and you want a combination of both in GPPs. I shoot for a minimum of at least 3 floor plays in GPP and am willing to go as high as 5 in some of my lineups. They are sorted by DraftKings salary.

  1. Dustin Johnson (Ceiling) $11,500 DK $12,600 FD
  2. Brooks Koepka (Floor & Ceiling) $11,000 DK $12,600 FD
  3. Rory Mcllroy (Floor & Ceiling) $10,700 DK $11,900 FD
  4. Tony Finau (Floor & Ceiling) $9,900 DK $10,800 FD
  5. Tommy Fleetwood (Floor & Ceiling) $9,500 DK $11,600 FD
  6. Rafael Cabrera-Bello (Floor & Ceiling) $8,900 DK $11,000 FD
  7. Cameron Smith (Ceiling) $8,200 DK $9,800 FD
  8. Kyle Stanley (Floor & Ceiling) $7,600 DK $9,000 FD
  9. Keegan Bradley (Floor & Ceiling) $7,500 DK $9,400 FD
  10. Emiliano Grillo (Floor & Ceiling) $7,500 DK $9,400 FD
  11. Eddie Pepperell (Ceiling) $7,300 DK $8,600 FD
  12. Thomas Pieters (Floor & Ceiling) $7,100 DK $9,200 FD
  13. Chez Reavie (Ceiling) $7,100 DK $8,300 FD
  14. Cheng-Tsung Pan (Floor & Ceiling) $7,000 DK $8,200 FD
  15. Julian Suri (Ceiling) $7,000 DK $8,400 FD
  16. Matt Wallace (Ceiling) $6,700 DK $7,400 FD

I gave you an extra player this week so you’re getting my top 16. Good luck!

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