EL Roosevelt’s Playbook – Friday October 19th, 2018

Looking for help with your Euroleague lineups? In Roosevelt’s Playbook we provide our recommended plays for DraftKings for today’s Euroleague event!

Alexey Shved was once again the top fantasy producer on the slate. Is he worth paying up for again?

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Today is the final day of Euroleague action this week. It’s been a pretty frustrating week for many of us who play Euroleague. However, once again, the winning lineup in the Pull Up Jumper tournament with a first-place price of $1,000, FIVE out of the SIX players in the winning lineup were featured in this article. That means that we have the right plays. It’s just a matter of getting the right combination. That’s the part where we have to trust the process and know that in time one of these days we will get that combination and be victorious!

Today’s slate is a four-game slate. Here’s a breakdown of the 8 teams along with the key statistics that I look at for each team. Included are their odds to win, their implied offensive total, how well their opponent defends against the guard position and how well their opponent defends against the forward position. When building your lineups you want to ideally target a favorite team that has a high implied total with players that play positions where their opponent has a low rank for how they guard that position. It’s a 1 to 16 scale 16 means they give up a lot to that position 1 means they limit that position.

Anadolu Efes +175 underdog 76.25 implied total 1st guard rank 16th forward rank.

Khimki Moscow -210 favorite 81.25 implied total 13th guard rank 2nd forward rank.

Fenerbahce Ulker -170 favorite 78.5 implied total 6th guard rank 5th forward rank.

Zalgiris Kaunas +145 underdog 75 implied total 16th guard rank 10th forward rank.

Olimpia Milano +270 underdog 76.25 implied total 3rd guard rank 1st forward rank.

Olympiakos -340 favorite 83.25 implied total 11th guard rank 11th forward rank.

Saski Baskonia +270 underdog 81.25 implied total 15th guard rank 12th forward rank.

Real Madrid -340 favorite 88.75 implied total 8th guard rank 3rd forward rank.

 

So now, let’s take a look at the players that we want to consider on this slate:

Top Tier Guards

Alexey Shved KHI $14,500 – Surprisingly Shved wasn’t in the winning lineup on Wednesday even though he put up 41.75 fantasy points. He was in the 2nd place lineup though still good for turning $10 to $500. He was 61% owned on Wednesday and 71% owned last week. He is still a must play in cash and worth lots of exposure in GPP. However, as his price continues to go up, there’s definitely merit to playing a small percentage of your lineups without him. Wednesday’s winner played 2 lineups, faded Shved in both. One lineup didn’t cash at all. The other won $1,000.

Mike James AXM $11,200 – If you’re looking to fade Shved, James is certainly a good place to start. He’s got the 2nd highest fantasy points average for guards on the slate. However, this is not the best matchup for him. His team are sizable underdogs and are tied for the 2nd lowest implied total on the slate. They also have the toughest opposing defense matchup at both the guard and forward position. If there’s a spot where James could disappoint this is it right here.

Nemanja Nedovic AXM $10,400 – James’ backcourt partner in crime is $800 less and is averaging less than 1 fantasy point lower than James. However, everything that I mentioned about the bad matchup for James applies to Nedovic as well. He’s got the upside, but this is definitely a spot where he could disappoint.

Facundo Campazzo RMB $9,900 – He exploded on Wednesday putting up 40 fantasy points. Realistically that’s probably his ceiling as opposed to his floor. However, his team is tied for 1st with the highest odds to win and they have the highest implied total on the slate. Their opponent gives up most of their fantasy points to the guard position. He’s definitely more of a GPP play than a cash play but a repeat of Wednesday’s performance could put him in the winning GPP lineup on this slate.

Jayson Granger BKN $9,800 – In Euroleague you don’t always need super high ceiling guys to win a GPP. A guy with a solid floor can be a part of the foundation that gets you to 1st place. On Wednesday that was Jayson Granger. He put up 25.75 fantasy points on Wednesday. Last week he put up 26.25 fantasy points. These aren’t earth-shattering numbers, but he was in the winning GPP lineup. His team are underdogs, but they have a great matchup and he’s worth a look in all formats.

Vassilis Spanoulis OLY $9,300 – Like Granger, he’s not a guy with a super high ceiling that’s going to rocket launch your lineup. However, a solid floor is very valuable in a league where it’s not as readily available and he’s got that. Not to mention, his team is tied for 1st with the biggest odds to win and they also have the 2nd highest implied total on this slate. They also have good matchups at both the guard and forward position. Plus as a bonus teammate Janis Strelnieks is out so he could get a little more minutes in this game. He’s worth a look in all formats.

Mid Tier Guards

Nigel Williams-Goss OLY $7,400 – Continuing with our theme of guys who don’t have super high ceilings but have solid floors from the high tier category, this is that guy in the mid tier. He’s averaging a fantasy point per minute and getting minutes in the low 20s making him a great cash play in the mid tier as well as a good GPP lineup stablilzer while you take chances on higher upside players elsewhere in your lineup. Plus as a bonus teammate Janis Strelnieks is out so he could get a little more minutes in this game.

Nate Wolters ZAL $7,300 – After Shved this is my favorite guard play on the slate. He’s got the 4th highest fantasy points average at the guard position but he’s still priced in the mid tier of salary. While his team are slight underdogs, they are projected to play in a close game and their opponent so far has been one of the worst teams in the league at allowing fantasy points to the guard position. He is a must play for me in cash lineups and I will have lots of exposure to him in GPP lineups.

Value Tier Guards

Dogus Balbay EFS $6,700 – He’s exceeded 3x value in both of his matches so far this year. However, he’s got a tough matchup today going against a team that has been the best at limiting the fantasy production of guards. He’s worth a look but the matchup is a concern.

Dee Bost KHI $5,500 – Bost is getting great playing time and in a league where playing time is a premium you have to jump on guys who are getting minutes, especially in this price range. He is EASILY the best option out of the guards in the value tier and as favorites against a team that gives up a lot of fantasy points to guards, he’s a no-brainer play in any format.

Leo Westermann ZAL $5,200 – He’s averaging over 3x value in his first two games this season and averaging over a fantasy point per minute as well. That’s just what you want to see from a value tier option. His opponent gives up a lot of fantasy points to the guard position so he’s absolutely in play in all formats on today’s slate.

Ali Muhammed FDB $4,500 – He’s not a starter and his minutes are limited so he’s definitely NOT SAFE for cash at all! However, he made the most of his limited time on Wednesday shooting 5 for 6 from the field including 4-5 from 3 point land and he had absolutely no ownership. If you need a low floor high ceiling GPP punt, he’s exactly that.

Vangelis Mantzaris OLY $3,600 – This is an injury special with Janis Strelnieks out. Janis played 11 minutes on Wednesday and 17 minutes last week. The only other guard on the roster hasn’t played at all. If Mantzaris can get additional minutes in his absence that could potentially help his value. With that said, it is a risk. He hasn’t done much with the minutes he has gotten so far so don’t get your hopes up. However, he’s worth a shot as a punt.

Top Tier Forwards

Tornike Shengelis BKN $10,700 – Whether he starts or comes off the bench he’s got a solid floor for fantasy production. This week, even though his team are underdogs, their opponent gives up a lot of fantasy points to the forward position. He may be the highest priced forward on the slate. However, his price comes with a safety that isn’t available to other players.

Nikola Milutinov OLY $10,200 – He’s got a slightly lower floor than Shengelis but is $500 cheaper and has much bigger upside as he demonstrated with his 43.25 fantasy point GPP winning perfomance being only 5% owned. His team are big favorites with a good matchup so he might very well do it again. He’s worth a look in all formats on this slate.

Jan Vesely FBD $10,100 – He’s got a solid floor with GPP winning upside. He’s got a tougher matchup than the other two players in the top tier. However, his team is still a favorite to win and he could still potentially exceed value even in this tougher matchup.

Brandon Davies ZAL $9,600 – He’s got the lowest floor out of the four options in the top tier. However, if you played Euroleague last year, you know that he’s got a super high ceiling. His team are slight underdogs but they have a decent matchup and he could do well in this spot. He’s worth a look in all formats.

Mid Tier Forwards

Anthony Randolph RMB $8,500 – Randolph exploded on Wednesday putting up over 44 fantasy points. Although he was $1,000 less he’s still has 40+ fantasy upside at a mid tier price as opposed to a top tier price. There is one concern though. Gustavo Ayon, his teammate has been away from the team and could potentially come back on Friday. If he does, I am going to pass on Randolph as well as Ayon and see how that situation plays out first. The same applies for Walter Tavares RMB at $7,600.

Tibor Pleiss EFS $8,300 – If Ayon is back, Pleiss easily becomes the number one forward option in the mid-tier pricing. He’s put up very consistent numbers in his first two games playing and he’s averaging about a fantasy point per minute. Even if Ayon doesn’t come back, he’s still worth some exposure to in all formats.

Adrien Moerman EFS $8,200 – Pleiss teammate is also a solid option in the mid tier at the forward position. His numbers are slighly less than Pleiss. However, he hasn’t had any horrible games and they have a great matchup against a team that gives up a lot of fantasy points to the forward position.

Value Tier Forwards

Nikola Kalinic FBD $6,500 – His price has gone up some but he’s look solid in his first two games. His team is the favorite and he’s in a good spot to meet value once again.

Sasha Vezenkov OLY $3,900 – He’s super cheap and will need to score to exceed value but he put up 13 points on 5-7 shooting in the first game. If he can do that again, he could pay off value with very little ownership on today’s slate.

Ilimane Diop BKN $3,800 – Like Vezenkov he’s super cheap however, his problem is minutes. In the first game he got 21 minutes and he scored 22.5 fantasy points. In the 2nd game he only got 5 minutes. He had 4 personal fouls though in both games. I’m assuming in the 2nd game he got into foul trouble quickly and that limited his playing time. I’m willing to go back to him with a lower price and lower ownership as a GPP play.

Good luck!

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