PGA Roosevelt’s Hole In One – Wednesday October 17th

Looking for help with your PGA lineups? In Roosevelt’s Hole In One we provide our recommended plays for Draft, DraftKings and FanDuel for this weekend’s PGA event!

Marc Leishman won the CIMB Classic last week. Is he in play this week?

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Last week Marc Leishman won the CIMB Classic. I had a lot of exposure to him on Draft. However, he was not in my player pool for DraftKings or FanDuel. Bronson Burgoon, Emiliano Grillo and Chesson Hadley tied for 2nd place. I had some exposure but they weren’t one of my top picks. I got a 42% ROI return on Draft. I took a 79% loss on DraftKings. I took a 100% loss on FanDuel. I finished with a -14% loss last week. My cash lineup only put up 520, which was far below the 575 necessary to cash in Double Ups.

This week the PGA Tour moves on to Korea for the C.J. Cup. Once again we have a Wednesday evening lock so make sure you sign up for your contests early and you fill out your lineups on time. This event is held a high altitude so expect the ball to travel longer than normal. It’s a Par 72 course that measures a little less than 7,200 yards. This is another no cut event due to a small field. We have 4 Par 5 holes on this course so Par 5 scoring should be considered. With the high altitude I’m looking for a good combination of golfers who can gain strokes off the tee as well as on the approach.

Here are the key factors I’m looking at in order of priority:

  • Vegas odds to win
  • Recent Form
  • Strokes Gained Approach
  • Strokes Gained Off The Tee
  • Par 5 Scoring
  • Birdie or Better Percentage
  • Strokes Gained Around The Green
  • Course History (2017 only)

Here are the tools I used for research this week:

Chris Durell PGA Spreadsheet

Draft Top 10 Plays

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On Draft, your primary concern is to draft the best golfers in the field regardless of position. A great way to assess that is to start with Vegas Odds to Win. Going strictly by Vegas Odds these are the top 10 golfers in the field:

  1. Justin Thomas
  2. Brooks Koepka
  3. Hideki Matsuyama
  4. Marc Leishman
  5. Paul Casey
  6. Xander Schauffele
  7. Billy Horschel
  8. Louis Oosthuizen
  9. Adam Scott
  10. Cameron Smith

Looking at recent form Vegas seems to have it right. You can make an argument to take Matsuyama over Koepka. You can also make an argument for Horschel to be as high as 4th although I’m fine where he’s at. Key statistics they are about right as well. You can make an argument for Scott higher  based on key statistics.

As for the positions outside of top 10 start off with ranking them by Vegas odds to win. Some golfers you can look to target higher than their Vegas odds include Woodland who is a top 10 pick for me. I like Kyle Stanley as a top 15 play as well as Kevin Na. Rafael Cabrera-Bello is a top 20 play. I also like Chesson Hadley higher as well. Outside the top 20 look at Kevin Tway and Kevin Chappell.

DraftKings & FanDuel Top 15 Plays (Floor & Ceiling)

On DraftKings and FanDuel salary is important. A player can be a good player but a bad DraftKings  or FanDuel play if the salary is too high. The following list are my top 15 plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Next to their name I indicate if they are a floor play or a ceiling play. A floor play is a player who should score a decent score even if they don’t win in relation to their salary. A ceiling play is a player who has the potential to score a score that exceeds their salary (or win if they are an expensive player) but also has the potential to post a very low score. You want only floor plays in cash lineups and you want a combination of both in GPPs. I shoot for a minimum of at least 3 floor plays in GPP and am willing to go as high as 5 in some of my lineups. They are sorted by DraftKings salary.

  1. Justin Thomas (Floor & Ceiling) 11.6k DK 13.1k FD
  2. Brooks Koepka (Floor & Ceiling) 11.2k DK 12.3k FD
  3. Hideki Matsuyama (Ceiling) 10.4k DK 11.6k FD
  4. Gary Woodland (Floor & Ceiling) 9.1k DK 11k FD
  5. Byeong-Hun An (Floor & Ceiling) 8.7k DK 9.7k FD
  6. Kyle Stanley (Floor & Ceiling) 8.2k DK 9.5k FD
  7. Sungjae Im (Floor & Ceiling) 8k DK 8.4k FD
  8. Rafael Cabrera Bello (Floor & Ceiling) 7.9k DK 10.8k FD
  9. Cheng-Tsung Pan (Floor & Ceiling) 7.8k DK 8.6k FD
  10. Joaquin Niemann (Ceiling) 7.6k DK 9.9k FD
  11. Kevin Tway (Ceiling) 7,5k DK 9.8K FD
  12. Kevin Chappell (Ceiling) 7.3k DK 9.2k FD
  13. Keith Mitchell (Ceiling) 7.1k DK 7.9k FD
  14. Stewart Cink (Floor & Ceiling) 7k DK 8.9K FD
  15. Jamie Lovemark (Ceiling) 6.8k DK 8.5k FD

Good luck!

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