MMA Roosevelt’s Scouting Report – Saturday September 22nd 2018

Looking for advice on who to play in your MMA lineups? In today’s edition of MMA Roosevelt’s Scouting Report I break down Saturday’s slate for UFC Fight Night!

Courtesy of ufc.com

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If you have questions, the best way to reach me is by asking your question in our private slack community in our MMA specific chat channel. While I can’t guarantee I will get to your question, the chat is the first place I check for questions so that’s the best way to get me. I rarely if ever check Facebook messenger individual messages so if you’re messaging me there you’re wasting your time. You can also post it within our Facebook group and tag me and if I see it and am free I’ll answer it there as well. Unfortunately, I’m not available for one on one help today so tag me in the group if you want help.

This week, UFC Fight Night goes to Brazil where we have a 14 fight card!!! This is great for MMA purposes because the more fighters that you have, the less of a chance that the winning GPP lineup results in a tie. I like this card for fantasy purposes as I believe there are a lot of ways you can go with this.

Last weekend I did well. My cash lineup put up a score of 402, which was good enough to cash in all the GPPs that I entered. It only took 591 to win a GPP last week. My highest scoring lineup was 549.5 so I came close to getting it done. The majority of my lineups cashed.

Once again, we’re going light due to football. Once again, I got destroyed on DraftKings. Hopefully this will be a better week and I can increase my MMA budget since I’ve been doing good the last few weeks.

How I Rank Fighters

My rankings are based on the following criteria

  • Odds to win the fight.
  • DraftKings scoring average last 5 fights
  • Draftkings career scoring average.
  • Odds to win inside the distance.
  • Fight Matrix weight class ranking
  • Significant strikes landed per minute
  • Average takedowns landed per fight

I have a spreadsheet with a formula that I built based on these factors. Each fighter has an overall rank from 1 to 24. Top 6 fighters go in the Elite category. 7-12 are in the Good category. 13-19 are in the Fair category. 20-26 go in the Fade/High Risk category. Most of my recommendations will come from my rankings but I also factor in my own thoughts based on my analysis of the fight.

Since I’m short on time this week, I’m just going to give you my plays and rankings. Here are my rankings:

Elite Plays – Fighters good for all formats and good for lots of exposure to.

  1. Charles Oliveira – $9,400
  2. Thiago Santos – $8,600
  3. Gillian Robertson – $8,300

Good Plays – Fighters good for all formats but less exposure than the elite plays. Also can serve as GPP pivots from elite fighters who should be higher owned.

  1. Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos – $9,500
  2. Alex Oliveria – $9,300
  3. Renan Barao – $8,500

Fair Plays – These fighters make good cash plays if they have a low salary ($7,700 or less). Otherwise, they should be used as GPP pivots only.

  1. Sam Alvey – $9,200 – I’m fading him but if you want a contrarian KO or bust play, this is it.
  2. Livinha Souza $9,600
  3. Francisco Trinaldo $8,900
  4. Augusto Sakai – $8,800
  5. Sergio Moraes – $9,100
  6. Ryan Spann – $8,700
  7. Eryk Anders – $7,600
  8. Thales Leites – $7,800 – More a reflection on how bad his opponent is than how good he is.
  9. Randa Markos – $8,000
  10. Evan Dunham – $7,300
  11. Rogerio Nogueira – $7,000
  12. Marina Rodriguez – $8,200

Fades/High Risk Plays – Do not play any of these fighters in cash! Do not play any of these fighters if you are playing less than 20 GPP lineups. If you are playing more than 20 GPP lineups you can get low exposure if you want to but limit your exposure to the fighters listed here. I’m fading everyone on this list in my personal lineups.

  1. Hector Lombard – $8,400
  2. Mayra Bueno Silva – $7,900
  3. Luis Henrique – $7,500
  4. Ben Saunders – $7,100
  5. Carlos Pedersoli – $6,900
  6. Chase Sherman – $7,400
  7. Andre Ewell – $7,700
  8. Christos Giagos – $6,800
  9. Alex Chambers – $6,600
  10. Luigi Vendramini – $6,700

Good luck!

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