MMA Roosevelt’s Scouting Report – August 25th, 2018

Looking for advice on who to play in your MMA lineups? In today’s edition of MMA Roosevelt’s Scouting Report I break down Saturday’s slate for UFC Fight Night!

Courtesy of ufc.com

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It’s UFC Fight Night live from Lincoln, Nebraska. We haven’t had UFC cards in the last few weeks so it’s good to be back!

How I Rank Fighters

My rankings are based on the following criteria

  • Odds to win the fight.
  • DraftKings scoring average last 5 fights
  • Draftkings career scoring average.
  • Odds to win inside the distance.
  • Fight Matrix weight class ranking
  • Significant strikes landed per minute
  • Average takedowns landed per fight

I have a spreadsheet with a formula that I built based on these factors. Each fighter has an overall rank from 1 to 24. Top 6 fighters go in the Elite category. 7-12 are in the Good category. 13-19 are in the Fair category. 20-26 go in the Fade/High Risk category. Most of my recommendations will come from my rankings but I also factor in my own thoughts based on my analysis of the fight.

Here are my rankings:

Elite Plays – Fighters good for all formats and good for lots of exposure to.

  1. Eryk Anders $9,700 – In play for all formats. He should win this fight and finish it. Very likely to score over 100 points. The only issue is he is so expensive that if he doesn’t finish or score high, he’s going to kill your lineups for GPP.
  2. Bryan Barberena $9,500 – In play for all formats. He also should win the fight and finish it. However, he not as strong of a play as Anders and has a tougher opponent. Like Anders he needs the finish to pay off value.
  3. James Vick $8,600 – In play for all formats. Main Event stack definitely in play for cash as well. Strong odds to finish the fight plus it’s the Main Event so you have 5 potential rounds to score if it doesn’t finish.
  4. Mickey Gall $9,200 – In play for all formats. Has a 100% win by submission rate. Should be a popular play because he has a very good chance to win and finish but he’s not as expensive as Anders and Barberena.
  5. Iuri Alcantara $7,200 – He has significant odds value at this price. Getting a favorite fighter at $7,200 makes him in play in all formats, especially in cash.
  6. Andre Fili $7,500 – Like Alcantara he has significant odds value at this price. Getting a favorite fighter at $7,500 makes him in play in all formats, especially in cash.

Good Plays – Fighters good for all formats but less exposure than the elite plays. Also can serve as GPP pivots from elite fighters who should be higher owned.

  1. Justin Gaethje $7,600 – In play for all formats. Main Event stack definitely in play in cash. While Vick is the favorite to win, I like more exposure to Gaethje due to the price.
  2. Rani Yahya $8,300 – Has the 3rd best wrestling upside on the entire card. Also has finishing upside. In play for all formats.
  3. Deiveson Figueiredo $8,400 – He’s more of a GPP play. He has knockout power and some wrestling upside. However, the fight is more likely to go to a decision and he’s not going to be able to pay off value if that happens unless he gets a lot of wrestling in.
  4. Drew Dober $8,900 – In play in all formats. In a similar category as Anders, Barberena and Gall but could be worth the play because he’s the lowest price in the top tier and in his last fight he proved he could score high in a decision.
  5. Warlley Alves $9,300 – In play for all formats. He’s pretty much in the same situation as Anders, Barberena and Gall. However, you can’t play everybody so for me Alves is the one I’ll have less of. However, he’s definitely a good play.
  6. Cory Sandhagen $9,000 – He’s more of a GPP play for me being an underdog so high price. However, he has the ability to win this fight and finish high and should be low owned as well. So while I wouldn’t go crazy, I will definitely has some exposure to differentiate my lineups.

Fair Plays – These fighters make good cash plays if they have a low salary ($7,700 or less). Otherwise, they should be used as GPP pivots only.

  1. Angela Hill $8,500 – She’s the favorite and can score high even in a decision because of the high rate that she lands significant strikes. However, the concern is her fight is a close fight so if she doesn’t win she’s not going to meet value.
  2. Luke Sanders $7,900 – Definitely in play being a slight underdog and lands strikes at a high rate. However, I think Yahya will win so he’s really going to be more of a lineup differentiator.
  3. Joanne Calderwood $8,800 – She has some upside because of the rate that she lands significant strikes. However, she’s pretty expensive so she’s really more of a GPP differentiator only.
  4. Andrew Sanchez $8,000 – GPP only play for the most part as he’s in a really close fight. However, he has good pricing as an lower priced favorite so while I don’t think you need to play him in cash, you can if you really want to.
  5. Markus Perez $8,200 – GPP only play as he’s the higher priced fighter and the underdog. However, he does have some finishing upside.
  6. Michael Johnson $8,700 – He’s worth some exposure because he does have a legitimate chance to win this fight and will be low owned as the higher priced underdog.
  7. John Moraga $7,800 – In play as a slight underdog and a high quality fighter. However, he has significant risk because he doesn’t strike at a high rate and doesn’t have wrestling upside either.

Fades/High Risk Plays – Do not play any of these fighters in cash! Do not play any of these fighters if you are playing less than 20 GPP lineups. If you are playing more than 20 GPP lineups you can get low exposure if you want to but limit your exposure to the fighters listed here.

  1. Cortney Casey $7,700 – She’s not unplayable but at her price there are so many other plays, don’t really see me playing her.
  2. James Krause $6,900 – I would only play him if I was mass entering because he has scored well in the past. However, since I’m not mass entering today he’s not on my radar.
  3. Jon Tuck $7,300 – Like Krause I would only play him if I was mass entering because he could potentially pick up the upset and be low owned. However, since I’m not mass entering today he’s not on my radar.
  4. Kalindra Faria $7,400 – I have absolutely no interest in Faria.
  5. George Sullivan $7,000 – I have no interest in Sullivan. Gall should destroy him.
  6. Jake Ellenberger $6,700 – I have no interest in Ellenberger. Barberena should destroy him.
  7. Tim Williams $6,500 – I have no interest in Williams. Anders should destroy him.

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