MMA Roosevelt’s Scouting Report – Thursday July 26th 2018

Looking for advice on who to play in your MMA lineups? In today’s edition of MMA Roosevelt’s Scouting Report I break down Saturday’s slate for UFC Fight Night!

Picture of Dustin Pourier by TheDurandal42

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It’s UFC Fight Night live from Calgary Alberta, Canada! Last week was not a good week for me. Only had a few lineups that cashed, although I was close to the winning lineup. Problem was I didn’t have Haqparsart and that was my undoing.

This Canadian card is a really good card! I’m definitely looking forward to watching it. The top of the card has legit pay per view champion level fighters and every single fighter on the card has had at least one fight in the UFC. This should be a solid card this Saturday!

How I Rank Fighters

My rankings are based on the following criteria

  • Odds to win the fight.
  • DraftKings scoring average last 5 fights
  • Draftkings career scoring average.
  • Odds to win inside the distance.
  • Fight Matrix weight class ranking
  • Significant strikes landed per minute
  • Average takedowns landed per fight

I have a spreadsheet with a formula that I built based on these factors. Each fighter has an overall rank from 1 to 24. Top 6 fighters go in the Elite category. 7-12 are in the Good category. 13-19 are in the Fair category. 20-26 go in the Fade/High Risk category.

Here are the fighters as ranked by my formula:

Elite Plays – Fighters good for all formats and good for lots of exposure to.

  1. Dustin Poirier $8,800 – In play for all formats, lots of exposure. My favorite play on the card.
  2. Joanna Jedrzejczyk $9,200 – Solid cash play. Concerned about her upside though with only 3 rounds.
  3. Islam Makhachev $9,600 – Great cash play. Concerned about GPP viability due to price and low inside distance odds.
  4. Matheus Nicolau $9,000 – He’s a really good fighter but there’s definitely risk he could win with a low score for price.
  5. Jeremy Stephens $8,000 – Legit power & GPP upside but definite downgrade to competition Aldo has fought previously.
  6. Gadzhimurad Antigulov $8,600 – Legit GPP play. Huge wrestling upside. Tough matchup though.

Good Plays – Fighters good for all formats but less exposure than the elite plays. Also can serve as GPP pivots from elite fighters who should be higher owned.

  1. Eddie Alvarez $7,400 – Lock for all non Poirier GPP lineups & don’t mind cash stack either. Best value by far.
  2. Alexander Hernandez $7,900 – Great GPP play. Super high upside. Huge upgrade in competition though.
  3. Oliver Aubin-Mercier $8,300 – Great GPP play. Like him to win and could be lower owned than his opponent.
  4. Nina Ansaroff $8,500 – Good cash play. Has some GPP appeal due to her high striking output.
  5. Katlyn Chookagian $8,700 – She’s a legit play in all formats but I’m concerned she might not meet value.
  6. Hakeem Dawodu $9,400 – He SHOULD win and get the finish. The question is…will he though?

Fair Plays – These fighters make good cash plays if they have a low salary ($7,700 or less). Otherwise, they should be used as GPP pivots only.

  1. Ion Cutelaba $7,600 – Numbers wise he’s a fair play. I really like the matchup and the price for him though.
  2. John Makdessi $8,900 – Should win his fight but limited upside doesn’t make him as appealing of a play.
  3. Jose Aldo – $8,200 – Numbers don’t jump off the page but huge downgrade in competition puts him in play.
  4. Alexis Davis $7,500 – She’s a decent cash play and a live underdog but concerned she might not meet value.
  5. Jordan Mein $8,100 – Like him to win but concerned about the upside.
  6. Dustin Ortiz $7,200 – He’s a great cash play for the value and I don’t mind some GPP exposure as well.
  7. Alex Morono $8,100 – Like his opponent more but even fight. Get some exposure but upside concerns as well.
  8. Tecia Torres $7,000 – She’s worth a little bit of ownership because of the price and in case JJ really is washed up.
  9. Alvaro Herrera $7,800 – Don’t normally recommend fighters this low but matchup makes him in play for GPP.
  10. Devin Powell $8,400 – Don’t normally recommend fighters this low but matchup makes him in play for GPP.

Fades/High Risk Plays – Do not play any of these fighters in cash! Do not play any of these fighters if you are playing less than 20 GPP lineups. If you are playing more than 20 GPP lineups you can get low exposure if you want to but limit your exposure to the fighters listed here.

  1. Randa Markos $7,700 – She’s not unplayable, does have line value, but I’m personally not a fan of the play.
  2. Kajan Johnson $6,600 – Unless you think he can be the lightning that strikes twice don’t waste your money on him.
  3. Ross Pearson $7,300 – Not a horrible play but so many other plays I like more that are around his price or less.
  4. Austin Arnett $6,800 – I have no interest. He’s garbage. Now that I said that, he’s going to score 200 points lol.

When making your lineups keep in mind who your opponent is fighting. If you pick a fighter who is an Elite play but his opponent is a Good play that fighter is more risky than a fighter who is an Elite play facing a fighter who is a Fade/High Risk. For cash lineups you are looking for safety. For GPP lineups you are looking for upside.

Also it’s never a good idea to play two fighters who are fighting each other unless it’s a cash lineup and both fighters have the opportunity to score well. That’s usually a main event right with low inside the distance odds.

Good luck!

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