MMA Roosevelt’s Scouting Report – Thursday July 18th 2018

Looking for advice on who to play in your MMA lineups? In today’s edition of MMA Roosevelt’s Scouting Report I break down Saturday’s slate for UFC Fight Night!

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It’s UFC Fight Night live from Hamburg, Germany! Last week was a good week for me. My cash lineup absolutely crushed it, putting up 550 points and scoring 6 wins. GPP wasn’t anything special but I was able to walk away with a profit.

This Germany card has some decent fighters at the top of the card. There are a few fighters who are ok in the middle and bottom of the card. Then you have a lot of fighters who either aren’t very good or are making their debut. This will be an interesting card to tackle.

How I Rank Fighters

My rankings are based on the following criteria

  • Odds to win the fight.
  • DraftKings scoring average last 5 fights
  • Draftkings career scoring average.
  • Odds to win inside the distance.
  • Fight Matrix weight class ranking
  • Significant strikes landed per minute
  • Average takedowns landed per fight

If you noticed I have removed UFC fan picks from the algorithm and have replaced it with Fight Matrix weight class ranking. UFC fan picks are going away next month and the Fight Matrix gives us a picture of the quality of fighters a fighter has fought. This is especially helpful for the fighters making their UFC debut.

I have a spreadsheet with a formula that I built based on these factors. Each fighter has an overall rank from 1 to 24. Top 6 fighters go in the Elite category. 7-12 are in the Good category. 13-19 are in the Fair category. 20-26 go in the Fade/High Risk category.

Here are the fighters as ranked by my formula:

Elite Plays – Fighters good for all formats and good for lots of exposure to.

  1. Glover Teixeira – $8,600
  2. Anthony Smith – $8,700
  3. Marcin Tybura – $9,000
  4. Manny Bermudez – $9,200
  5. Danny Roberts – $9,400
  6. Emil Meek – $8,400

Good Plays – Fighters good for all formats but less exposure than the elite plays. Also can serve as GPP pivots from elite fighters who should be higher owned.

  1. Justin Ledet – $8,300
  2. Corey Anderson – $7,600
  3. Darko Stosic – $9,300
  4. Mauricio Rua – $7,500
  5. Marc Diakiese – $8,900
  6. Damian Stasiak – $8,200

Fair Plays – These fighters make good cash plays if they have a low salary ($7,700 or less). Otherwise, they should be used as GPP pivots only.

  1. Nad Narimani – $9,100
  2. Nick Hein – $8,500
  3. Abu Azaitar – $8,800
  4. Aleksander Rak – $7,900
  5. Bartosz Fabinski – $7,800
  6. Liu Pingyuan – $8,000
  7. Stefan Strube – $7,200

Fades/High Risk Plays – Do not play any of these fighters in cash! Do not play any of these fighters if you are playing less than 20 GPP lineups. If you are playing more than 20 GPP lineups you can get low exposure if you want to but limit your exposure to the fighters listed here.

  1. Jeremy Kimball – $6,900
  2. Damir Hadzovic – $7,700
  3. Vitor Miranda – $7,400
  4. Khalid Taha – $7,100
  5. David Zawanda – $6,800
  6. Nasrat Haqparast – $7,300
  7. Davey Grant – $7,000

When making your lineups keep in mind who your opponent is fighting. If you pick a fighter who is an Elite play but his opponent is a Good play that fighter is more risky than a fighter who is an Elite play facing a fighter who is a Fade/High Risk. For cash lineups you are looking for safety. For GPP lineups you are looking for upside.

Also it’s never a good idea to play two fighters who are fighting each other unless it’s a cash lineup and both fighters have the opportunity to score well. That’s usually a main event right with low inside the distance odds.

Good luck!

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