MMA Roosevelt’s Scouting Report – Thursday July 12th 2018

Looking for advice on who to play in your MMA lineups? In today’s edition of MMA Roosevelt’s Scouting Report I break down Saturday’s slate for UFC Fight Night!

Picture by Peter Gordon via Wikipedia Commons

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It’s UFC Fight Night live from Boise, Idaho! Last week for Fight Week I completely got my tail kicked! That’s a part of the game. Fantasy MMA is the sport with the highest amount of variance so you have to factor that into the equation. Almost everybody I said to fade on the Saturday card won! It happens! However, if you’re practicing good bankroll management you can survive those situations and keep it moving. That’s what I will be doing this weekend, keeping it moving.

MMA contests have been filling up faster than before. That’s one of the reasons why I moved this article up in the schedule. I would highly recommend locking your contests in as early as possible. This way you don’t miss out on the best contests.

This Idaho card seems pretty straight forward. I think there are some very clear fighters to target and some very clear fighters to avoid. However this is mixed martial arts. Anything can happen so keep that in mind.

How I Rank Fighters

My rankings are based on the following criteria

  • Odds to win the fight.
  • DraftKings scoring average last 5 fights
  • Draftkings career scoring average.
  • Odds to win inside the distance.
  • UFC fan picks at UFC.com/fantasy
  • Significant strikes landed per minute
  • Average takedowns landed per fight

I have a spreadsheet with a formula that I built based on these factors. Each fighter has an overall rank from 1 to 24. Top 6 fighters go in the Elite category. 7-12 are in the Good category. 13-19 are in the Fair category. 20-26 go in the Fade/High Risk category.

Here are the fighters as ranked by my formula:

Elite Plays – Fighters good for all formats and good for lots of exposure to.

  1. Alexander Volanovski – $9,200
  2. Junior Dos Santos – $8,700
  3. Dennis Bermudez – $9,000
  4. Chad Mendes – $8,900
  5. Sage Northcutt – $8,400
  6. Kurt Holobaugh – $8,800

Good Plays – Fighters good for all formats but less exposure than the elite plays. Also can serve as GPP pivots from elite fighters who should be higher owned.

  1. Alejandro Perez – $9,100
  2. Niko Price – $7,900
  3. Said Nurmagomedov – $8,500
  4. Elias Garcia – $8,600
  5. Jodie Esquibel – $8,300
  6. Liz Carmouche – $8,200

Fair Plays – These fighters make good cash plays if they have a low salary ($7,700 or less). Otherwise, they should be used as GPP pivots only.

  1. Randy Brown – $8,300
  2. Cat Zingano – $8,100
  3. Justin Scoggins – $7,700
  4. Myles Jury – $7,300
  5. Marion Reneau – $8,100
  6. Mark De La Rosa – $7,600
  7. Blagoy Ivanov – $7,500

Fades/High Risk Plays – Do not play any of these fighters in cash! Do not play any of these fighters if you are playing less than 20 GPP lineups. If you are playing more than 20 GPP lineups you can get low exposure if you want to but limit your exposure to the fighters listed here.

  1. Zak Ottow – $7,800
  2. Jessica Aguilar – $7,900
  3. Uriah Hall – $6,800
  4. Darren Elkins – $7,000 (I do like him as a GPP hedge though if you are playing a lot of Volanovski.)
  5. Jennifer Maia – $8,000
  6. Raoni Barcelos – $7,400
  7. Rick Glenn – $7,200

Good luck!

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